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<br />In these scenarios, flow was maintained in the Fort Lyon Canal to <br />satisfy downstream inigation demands outside of the study area. In <br />the four scenarios, average ground water salinity decreases ranged <br />from 4.610 25% CTable 3). The decrease in ground water salinity that <br />resulted in scenarios 1 to 3 was related to the decreased irrigated <br />acreage and the historically applied irrigation water in those subar- <br />eas. The largest decrease in ground water satinity was observed when <br />irrigation ceased in all three sub-areas (scenario 4). In scenario 4, <br />average monthly ground water salinity decreased from 2180 to <br />1630 mg/L (Table 3). For all scenarios, ground waler salinily <br />decreased steadily for about 12 years following the beginning of the <br />simulation period and then approached steady-state conditions <br />thereafter (Figure 12). This steady-state condition is coincident <br />with the simulated aquifer residence time of 10 to 15 years as <br />reponed by Konikow and Person (1985). The decreases in river salin- <br />ity were related to the magnitude of the decreases in irrigation in sce- <br />narios 1 to 4 (Table 3), and reached an average maximum decrease <br />of 4.4%. Salinity decreased in the river because of a decrease in the <br />quantity and salinity of return flows from the aquifer. <br />Water levels were relatively insensitive to changes in irri- <br />gated acreage. Although the river experienced a net gain in flow <br />between the upslream and downstream ends of the study area, the <br />decreases In net gams 1Il streamt10w ranged from 7.9 to 64% in the <br />four scenarios (Table 3). Scenario 4 had the largesl effect on <br />streamflow gains, decreasing the gains from 0.18 to 0.06 ml/s. <br />In the preceding four scenarios, the effect of the hydraulic head <br />in the canal was large, and leakage from the canal was a major com- <br />ponent of aquifer recharge. Based on model calculations, average <br />daily recharge to the aquifer from the canal was about 0.17 ml/s. <br />The canal is 193 kIn long, has a sandy bottom, and delivers water <br />to about 37,500 hectares of irrigated land (Gronning Engineering <br />Co. 1993). In the model simulations, 5.5% of the water diverted intc <br />the canal was applied to 1993 hectares in the study area. Therefore, <br />most of the water diverted from the river into the canal flows <br />through the study area for delivery to downstream irrigators. <br />Consequently, regardless of the modeled scenarios, the large vol- <br />ume of water remaining in the canal provides a substantial aITIount <br />(about 22%) of recharge to the aquifer underlying the study area. <br />A simulation was perfonned to determine the consequence on <br />the water quality and quantity of removing all the waler from the <br />canal. Simulation results were quite different when the scenario of <br />100% decrease in irrigated acreage was run with no water in the <br />canal, thus eliminating recharge to the aquifer from the canal. This <br />scenario duplicales conditions that could be associated with the trans- <br />fer of all w3ter from an entire irrigation system, which could take <br /> <br />.. .:""l <br /> <br />place jf all water rights in a canal system were purchased and that <br />water was transferred to other uses (e.g., munic~al or industrial). <br />In thai case, Ute transferred waler typically would be divened from <br />the river upstream from the study area. Therefore, the transferred <br />water would not represent a recharge source for the aquifer. In the <br />scenarios of 100% decrease in irrigated acreage with and \vithou[ <br />flow in the canal, average monthly streamflow gains decreased 64 <br />and 86%, respectively (Table 4). Average monthly water levels in <br />the aquifer declined aboUI 0.09 and 0.18 m, respectively CTable 4). <br />This degree of change in the average water level may be the result <br />of the model assumption that transmissivity doesn'l change over <br />time. In future modeling effons, it may be advantageous to define <br />transmissivity as a function of the total saturated thickness. Salinity <br />in Ihe aquifer and river did nOI vary substantially between the sim- <br />ulations with or without flow in the canal (Table 4). In the model <br />simulation with flow in the canal, recharge was supplied from <br />both the canal and the river; whereas, in the model simulation <br />with no flow in the canal, most recharge Wa'i supplied from the river. <br />Both sources of recharge have nearly identical salinity. <br /> <br />-. <br />. <br /> <br />Discussion <br />Tl1is study demonstrates the nature and magnitude of changes <br />in flow and salinity that could occur in response 10 the evaluated <br />changes in water use practices in the study area. It would be of great <br />value if model resulls from this sludy can be extended to other por- <br />tions of me lower Arkansas River valley in orde-r to assess changes <br />in water quality and quantity at the basin scale. Because the data <br />requirements (e.g., salinity levels, recharge, ground water pumpage, <br />aquifer characteristics, etc.) for the model are not available for the <br />entire valley, it would be difficult to construct a similar model over <br />the entire valley. '.';bile the states of Colorado and Kansas have each <br />developed basin-wide models that evaluate the effects of posl-com- <br />pact wells and the winter water reservoir storage program, many <br />simplifying assumptions were made t<> develop these models and <br />both models had their shortcomings (Simpson 1996). Furthennore, <br />neither of the models addresses the issue of water quality. <br />It is possible to use a simpler model that would require less data <br />to estimate the effects that changes in irrigation practices could have <br />on the quantity and quality of water over the entire valley. For exam- <br />ple, McLin (1981) used a generalized lumped parameter model on <br />the same study area as the Konikow and Bredehoelt (I 974b) model. <br />During the March 197110 February 1972 study period, McLin's <br />results compared favorably with the results obtained by Konikow <br />and Bredehoeft (l974b). While limitations exist in representing <br /> <br /> Table 4 <br />Model Results for Scenarios of Complete De<:rease in Irrigated A-creage With and Without Flow In the Canal <br /> Alluvial Aquifer Arkansas River <br /> Average Monthly Average Monthly Water A\'erage Monthly Average Monthly <br />Model Run Salinity (mgIL) Level (m above mean sea level) Salinity (mgIL) Streamflow Gains (m3/s) <br />Base Condition 2180 1224.42 t810 0.176 <br /> Complete Decrease in Irrigated Acreage <br />With Canal Flow t630 (-25%)] 1224.33 1730 (-4.4%) 0.064 (-64%) <br />WilhoUl Canal Flow 1650 (-24%\ t224.24 t140(-3.9%). 0.025 (-86%) <br />INumbers m paTCnl.heses indicate the percent difference belween the modeled base cOlldinon and the indicated scenario. <br /> <br />84 <br />