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<br />Therefore, one of the factors that is included in this reasonable and <br />prudent alternative is an attempt to "mimic" the natural hydrograph. <br /> <br />Since development began in the San Juan River Basin, and particularly <br />since the construction of Navajo Dam, the natural pattern has been <br />disrupted by the storage of the peak runoff and subsequent release of <br />water through the summer, while return flows, flood control releases, <br />and trout releases have contributed to higher base flows in the fall <br />and winter. Storage in Navajo Reservoir has been high during the <br />period because all of the Reservoir yield has not yet been committed. <br />The high storage level results in releases at times that may not be <br />beneficial for the endangered fish. Therefore, the main objective of <br />the operation of Navajo Reservoir is to increase the spring and early <br />summer peak flows by reducing the fall and winter flows and utilizing <br />the active storage capacity of Navajo Reservoir. <br /> <br />2. Modeled in May and June <br /> <br />One of the key elements of the reasonable and prudent alternative <br />(RPA) was the release of a block of water from Navajo Dam during the <br />spring to mimic or replicate the pattern of natural unregulated <br />flows. Iterative modeling was performed with various combinations of <br />minimum flows for trout and spring releases for squawfish, varying <br />between 100 and 500 cfs and 100,000 and 500,000 AF respectively. <br />These combinations produced spring releases that occurred with <br />differing long term frequencies. Biologists associated with the San <br />Juan River selected the combination of 300 cfs and 300,000 AF for use <br />in the RPA, which at the current level of depletions in the basin <br />resulted in high spring releases during 96 percent of the years <br />modeled. <br /> <br />During the 1991 modeling, this volume was released in the month of <br />June, producing releases of 5,000 cfs for the entire month. During <br />wet years, reservoir spills often occur during the month of May, <br />resulting in full reservoir conditions. Maximum releases (for the <br />RPA) during the following month of June often caused a significant <br />drawdown of the reservoir, affecting storage and releases in <br />succeeding years. Biologists believed that the pattern could be <br />better if divided between the months of May and June, but the <br />computer model was incapable of depicting such a distribution at the <br />time. <br /> <br />In the 1995 modeling, the computer algorithms were modified to allow <br />the endangered fish a volume of 300,000 AF to be spread equally <br />between May and June. In wet years, if the reservoir naturally <br />spilled due to hydrologic conditions, these spills were included as <br />part of the 150,000 AF released for the endangered fish, thus <br />reducing slightly the total volume released during the year. This <br />affects the reservoir in succeeding years as a result of generally <br />fuller reservoir storage conditions, but produces a more naturally <br />shaped hydrograph. The percentage of years that the spring release <br />would be made has not changed. Graphs of the flows at Farmington, <br /> <br />6 <br />