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<br />. .... <br />OU1JiJi <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />4. <br /> <br />t <br /> <br />In addition, statements of much greater detail can also be made. For <br /> <br />exall!Ple, using the model and the synthetic river flows we can say that it is <br /> <br />unlikely (only about 6% of the time, or only about lout of 17 chances) that <br /> <br />the average annual power generation at (<len Canyon for the first five years will <br /> <br />fall below 5 billions of kilowatt hours. Similarly, it is unlikely (10% of the <br /> <br />time, or only about lout of 10 chances) that the annual average power generation <br /> <br />will be greater -- for the first five years -- than 8 billion kilowatt hours. <br /> <br />About 50% of the time the power generated at Glen Canyon during the first five <br /> <br />years of operation will be between 5.4 and 7.2 billion kilowatt hours. <br /> <br />Similar probability statements (all based on the same aSSUll!Ptions) have <br /> <br />been worked out for power revenues and inflows at both Glen Canyon and Hoover <br /> <br />for the first JO years of operation of Glen Canyon Dam -- at five-year intervals. <br /> <br />In other words, frequency distributions have been made for Glen and Hoover Dams <br /> <br /> <br />. for inflows, power generation, and power revenues for the first five years, <br /> <br /> <br />first 10 years, first 15 years, etc.... through the first JO years of operation <br /> <br />at Glan Canyon Dam. Such information can be extremely valuable to all those <br /> <br />concerned with operation, management, and planning in the Colorado 'River Basin. <br /> <br />If, for example, the operating results predicted by the model are not acceptable <br /> <br />to the contracting parties in the Colorado River Compact alternate conditions or <br /> <br />restraints can be hypothesized; and the operation of ~le model under these <br /> <br />restraints can be simulated and the results observed. <br /> <br />This$raightforvmrd probability approach assumes that the stream floVl <br /> <br />at Lees Ferry is random and that Vie can do little more to get an idea of the <br /> <br />ordering of the flows over time, or of correlating basin or meteorological <br /> <br />characteristics with the stream-flows, to increase our predictive ability. One <br /> <br />of the major expert witnesses in the California v. Arixona case, Dr. Luna Leopold <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />of the United States Geological Survey, submitted to the Special Water Master a <br />