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<br />00 Lj;hi <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />3. <br /> <br />It a 15 year period; or for a 20 year period. We can adjust the percentage as we <br /> <br /> <br />wish, but as we increase the percentage (making us more certain), we find that <br /> <br /> <br />our estimates increase in width. That is, the l:imi ts of our 90% estimate are <br /> <br /> <br />"tighter" than the estimates for our 99% statement. And the limits for our <br /> <br /> <br />50% estimate are lffilch, lffilch narrower than for the 90% statement. Thus, the <br /> <br /> <br />more certain we are of the statements we make, the less accurate will be our <br /> <br /> <br />estimates. <br /> <br />The sets of hundreds of years of river flows generated by the simple <br /> <br /> <br />probability model can ~len be sent down river through a theoretical mathematical <br /> <br /> <br />model of the river from Powell Reservoir th;rough Hoove:!: Dam. The combined model <br /> <br /> <br />and synthetic streamflows give us much important information for decision making.. <br /> <br /> <br />For example, we developed a mathematical formula that reflects the amount of <br /> <br /> <br />power generated at Powell and Hoover Dams for varying amounts of river flow, <br /> <br /> <br />It storage, and evaporation. Such a formula, when combined with synthetic river- <br /> <br /> <br />flows, gives us an approximation of the actual river. <br /> <br /> <br />For example, using the unadjusted stream flow data of the United States <br /> <br /> <br />Geological Suxvey, and within the asslllllptions of our model, we can reach the <br /> <br /> <br />following conclusions: 1) fulfillment of the firm power requirements at the <br /> <br /> <br />Hoover Dam Power Plant is highly likely.. throughout the entire period that the <br /> <br /> <br />Powell Reservoir is being filled, 2) fulfillment of the firm power requirements <br /> <br /> <br />at Glen Canyon for only the first five years is also highly probable, 3) however, <br /> <br /> <br />the firm power reqJ. irements at Glen Canyon increase after the first five years <br /> <br /> <br />more rapidlv than it appears likely that the river flows (and power head) will <br /> <br /> <br />increase for such fulfillment. Thus, chances of meet:i:ng firm power requirements <br /> <br /> <br />at Glen Canyon decrease after the first five years of operation. <br /> <br />. <br />