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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />n"''<~~'' <br />(}:)~..Jv j <br /> <br />Regional Shares <br /> <br />The shares of production subcomponent is based upon time series data <br />of the percent of national production of each crop produced within the <br />individual states. For states with decl ining shares of production, <br />Cobb-Douglas functions were used. For states with increasing shares of <br />production, the Spillman function was used. In both functional forms time <br />was the independent variable. The projected shares to the year 2020 were <br />then adjusted by a multiplicative value derived as the inverse of the sum <br />of each commodity's projected shares across all states in which that com- <br />modity was produced. This resulted in each commodity's total production <br />always being 100 percent of the national total. The projections resul ting <br />from this method were then subjected to the review of individuals with com- <br />mOdity and state knowledge. Where deemed appropriate specific shares were <br />modified by the reviewing group. When the percentage of production in any <br />state was adjusted by this peer group, those states whose share had not <br />been adjusted were again modified by a constant multiplier such that allo- <br />cation of 100 percent of each commodity's production was accomplished. The <br />resulting shares were then again reviewed by the group until consensus was <br />achieved. For this analysis. the assumption has been made that the shares <br />of production will remain constant from 2000 to 2020. <br /> <br />11-49 <br />