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<br />el}?8~O <br /> <br />35 <br /> <br />Draw down = 86' Average (Historic Data) <br /> <br /> 30 <br /> End of 12th Month <br />c <br />.9 <br />II) <br />CIl 25 <br />II) <br />'- <br />Co <br />Co After heat decay <br />:::J <br />(f) <br />- <br />c 20 <br />II) <br />u <br />'- <br />II) <br />a. <br /> 15 <br /> <br />10 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Jan. <br /> <br />Feb. Mar. <br />Time of Initiol <br /> <br />Apr. <br />Mixing <br /> <br />May <br /> <br />Figure 14. Lake Powell mhlnllStactuP time. <br /> <br />temperature profiles are not available. Several <br />parameters were combined in many different <br />functional forms during the model building <br />process. The only parameters other than water <br />temperature which appear to be significant in <br />determining suppression are depth, flow index, <br />and elevation. The function derived is: <br /> <br />Suppression = 5.434 + 10.908 Log (D) - 5.3411 <br />Log (el) + 15.479 Flow <br /> <br />in which D is maximum depth in feet, EI is <br />elevation in feet, and Flow is the flow index <br />described previously. The correlation coefficient R <br />for this function is 0.940. The dominate correlation <br />parameter is depth. Both maximum depth and <br />average depth during the suppression season were <br />compared and they both gave equally good <br /> <br />correlation. Maximum depths were therefore used <br />in the model because accurate data on average <br />depths were not available for many reservoirs. <br /> <br />The parameter which contributes the second <br />highest improvement in correlation is the flow <br />index. In fact, almost the same correlation (R = <br />.939) can be achieved by eliminating elevation as <br />follows: <br /> <br />Supp. = -42.49 + 11.291 Log (D) + 16.248 Flow <br /> <br />Unfortunately. data to calculate the flow index are <br />not available for many reservoirs and a desirable <br />model for estimating suppression on a statewide <br />basis would be one which excludes flow. The best <br />such function is: <br /> <br />3S <br />