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/ Rapid ,/ / / / I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 o 1940 1950 1960 FIGURE 5 Understanding the variations in the alternative forecasts may be best achieved by examining the components of population growth. Table 8 presents figures on these components, including: natural increase, migration and military change. NA TURAl INCREASE Natural increase has a major impact on population growth. Since survival rates are held canstant in the alternatives, the variation in the number of deaths results entirely from differences in population sizes to which the rates are applied. Birth rates, on the other hand, vary between the two forecasts because of assumed differences in demographic trends which affect fertility. These variations range from a replacement level 2.1 children per woman at completion of childbearing for the slow growth alternative to 2.6 children per woman for / / / / / / / / / / / Slow __ ----- ",," --- '" --- <!.-- Rapilt............. -- -- -- -- --~'!.!'--- EMPlOY ENT -:..-:"- ------- 190 1980 2000 1990 the rapid growth forecast. Overall, natural increase is expected to account for 91 % of population change for slow growth, declining to 32% under the rapid growth scenario. MIGRA TION Employment-related migration is expected to have a greater influence on population growth in the future. There is a close relationship between total population growth and employment- related migration in the alternative forecasts. Nonmilitary employment in- migration into the community accounts far only 22% of population growth using the slow growth forecast and 60% for the rapid growth alternative. Expansion in the basic employment sector of the economy is expected to outpace growth in the local labor force, thus creating new jobs to be filled. It is estimated that such new employment, over and above growth 23