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<br /> <br />cipitation and temperature during a water year and conversion to "depend- <br />able" streamflows, It is possible, through the use of this method, to pro- <br />duce a firm estimate of seasonal dependable inflows, either for a single <br />river basin or a complex of river basins, without any reference to the <br />critical water year. It permits the discernment of low water and high <br />water years heretofore unrecorded in the historical data. <br /> <br /> <br />Much of the basic research necessary in adapting the method to <br />streamflow forecasts has been supported by private power interests in the <br />Pacific Northwest. To date, commercial tests have been concerned pri- <br />marily with river basins in that region. Therefore, this paper must limit <br />a review of results to the Columbia River and its tributaries. However, <br />the experience gained here, as well as the basic principles underlying the <br />work, permit adaptation to streamflow forecasting in any region where <br />adequate historical hydrometeorological data are available. <br /> <br />An assessment of the 1957-58 water year forecasts, prepared for <br />the Lewis River at Merwin Lake in Washington, and for the total inflow at <br />Grand Coulee in Washington, will be reviewed. These forecasts were pre- <br />pared during the course of the spring and summer, and issued in September <br />1957. <br /> <br /> <br />Importance of streamflow estimates is greatest during the fall <br />months. Storage may be drawn down at that time with confidence in a year <br />such as 1957-58, when the characteristics of the streamflow projections <br />for the winter months depart radically from the 1936-37 year. This is <br />exemplified in the verification of the monthly flows at Grand Coulee and <br />Merwin Lake, where decreasing flow in relation to usual median flow <br />trends, as projected for November, was followed by a sharp upturn by <br />February. The actual flows confirm this pattern. The forecast scheme <br />mentioned above, utilizing antecedent conditions as a starting point for a <br />streamflow projection with the 1936-37 characteristics for succeeding <br />months, would not indicate on December 1 the upturn in January and Feb- <br />ruary, but a decided decrease in flows during those months. The continual <br />refinement and extension of the method of streamflow forecasting described <br />in this paper can provide for a firm estimate of dependable flows because it <br />does not depend upon the use of statistical relationships which have no physi- <br />cal basis. <br /> <br />Important benefits not now obtainable would accrue to the interest <br />of power, flood control, irrigation, navigation, and other conservation uses. <br />Some of the benefits that would be realized by the three primary interests are: <br /> <br />Power - Greater amounts of secondary energy could be sold by <br />the Federal Government and non-federal utilities. Expensive <br />steam generation by private utilities would be minimized and <br /> <br />- 15 - <br />