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<br />fi <br /> <br />'. <br /> <br />This is water in excess of (1) reservoir conservation <br />storage, (2) Basin states' water needs, and (3) the minimum <br />Mexican Water Treaty delivery obligation. <br /> <br />"Benefits" referred to herein relate to river operations <br />and include water supply, flood control, hydropower <br />production, water quality, reduced operation and maintenance <br />(O&M) costs, better recreation opportunities, improved fish <br />and wildlife resources, and'international cooperation. <br /> <br />"Risks" as used herein are lost benefits or benefits <br />foregone that are associated with river operations in <br />connection with the redistribution of excess water releases. <br /> <br />"Most probable water supply", statistically, is the <br />median value of the probability distribution of forecast <br />inflow to Lake Powell. <br /> <br />"Probable minimum water supply", statistically, is the <br />lower decile value of the probability distribution of <br />forecast inflow to Lake Powell. <br /> <br />"Probable maximum water supply", statistically, is the <br />upper decile value of the probability distribution of <br />forecast inflow to Lake Powell. <br /> <br />"Upper decile" water supply, the volume of runoff <br />expected to be exceeded 10 percent of the time.* <br /> <br />"Upper quartile" water supply, the volume of runoff <br />expected to be exceeded 25 percent of the time.* <br /> <br />"Median" water supply, the volume of runoff expected to <br />be exceeded 50 percent of the time.* <br /> <br />"Lower quartile" water supply, the volume of runoff <br />expected to be exceeded 75 percent of the time.* <br /> <br />"Lower decile" water supply, the volume of runoff <br />expected to be exceeded 90 percent of the time.* <br /> <br />"Marginal probability distribution", as used herein, is <br />the probability distribution derived from the statistical <br />analysis of the historic (currently 1906-1985) unregulated <br />monthly runoff into Lake Powell. <br /> <br />"Conditional probability distribution", referred to <br />herein, is the probability distribution derived from the <br />statistical analysis of computer simulated unregulated runoff <br />values using the National Weather Service River Forecast <br /> <br />*Based on historical runoff records for the period 1961 to <br />1985 as used in this report. <br /> <br />-2- <br />