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<br />" <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />than October and November as shown in Table 4. Excess water <br />releases in this period would serve to smooth the transition <br />from relatively lower releases to higher flood control <br />releases in January and would serve to improve recreation and <br />water quality which, with respect to salinity, is generally <br />the highest for the year during this period. <br /> <br />Additional key water supply information available during <br />this period are: 1) runoff forecasts through March, 2) <br />precipitation occurring during this period that begins to <br />contribute to the snowpack giving the first indication of the <br />April through July runoff and, 3) the January-July forecast, <br />which determines the flood control releases. <br /> <br />October 1, the beginning of the operating year, is the <br />time that the Secretary of the Interior would declare river <br />and water supply conditions for the year. It is also the <br />point in time when a reassessment of the proposed AOP release <br />schedule for the operating year has been completed, including <br />updated evaluations of excess water availability and <br />redistribution schedules. <br /> <br />A shift is now made to a conditioned most probable water <br />supply as the basis for redistributing excess water with the <br />sensitivity of excess water availability under various water <br />supply scenarios being examined with the 24-month study <br />computer model. The emphasis for preserving conservation <br />storage remainsl however, attention is now also directed to <br />January 1 of the following operating year in the 24-month <br />studies to ensure reservoir storage at that time under any <br />redistribution of excess water releases would be the same as <br />it would have been under a minimum flood control requirement <br />operation. This would result in no release of water that <br />wouldn't have been released pursuant to mandatory flood <br />control requirements. Periodic evaluations of the ability to <br />recover to the minimum flood control operation space based on <br />a conditioned lower quartile water supply forecast, or a <br />condi tioned minimum probable if appropr iate, would be made <br />during this three-month period as required for release <br />decisions. <br /> <br />3.3.4 January through June. During this period, most of <br />the excess releases will be governed by the flood control <br />regulations. Some excess water could be released to smooth <br />the transition from flood control to downstream requirements <br />for river regulation purposes or to provide flexibility to <br />deal with late seasonal var iation in the forecasted runoff. <br />It is anticipated that excess releases during the previous <br />months will allow flood control releases within power plant <br />capacities. Water supply forecasts will predominate in the <br />release decisions. Should advance excess water releases be <br />deemed desirable for this period, evaluations of the ability <br /> <br />-33- <br />