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<br />," <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Chapter 3 <br /> <br />Recommended Process for Annual Operating Plan Development <br />Under Full Reservoir Conditions <br /> <br />3.1 Introduction <br /> <br />Providing effective river management and optimizing <br />benefits, consistent with the operating criteria and flood <br />control regulations, are central elements in the development <br />of the annual operating plans. Redistributing any excess <br />water as part of an AOP requires: <br /> <br />a. An annual quantification of excess water. <br />b. A redistribution of excess water. <br />c. An evaluation of the impacts of the planned release <br />schedule. <br />d. provisions for reassessing and modifying the planned <br />release schedule through continuous monitoring of <br />reservoir and water supply conditions. <br /> <br />The fOllowing describes the recommended plan development <br />process as it relates to each of these factors and the <br />ongoing role for the federal/state Colorado River Management <br />Work Group (Work Group). <br /> <br />3.2 Quantification of Excess Water <br /> <br />3.2.1 projected Probable Water SUPPlies. For any given <br />initial reservoir system condition, the availability of <br />excess water for redistribution will be a function of the <br />projected water supply and the minimum releases necessary to <br />meet all beneficial consumptive water use requirements in the <br />United States and the basic Mexican Water Treaty delivery <br />annual obligation of 1.5 maf (downstream requirements). For <br />purposes of quantifying eltcess water available for <br />redistribution, the .most probable water supply" should be <br />used as the basis for conservatively defining its upper <br />limit, with the .probable minimum water supply. defining the <br />likely lower limit. The .probable maximum water supply. is <br />also used in the plan development process to define the upper <br />limits of possible river operations for the year. <br /> <br />In the past, evaluation of water supply probability has <br />generally been based on historic values. Typically, the <br />historic average and either the historic lower quartile or <br />lower decile had been used for the most probable and minimum <br />probable water supplies, respectively. However, with the use <br />of real-time hydrologic data and physical-based conceptual <br />forecast models, it is now possible to project a range of <br /> <br />-23- <br />