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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />storage space by January 1 of the following operating year <br />that would have occurred under a minimum flood control <br />requirement operation. This results in no release of water <br />that wouldn't have been released pursuant to mandatory flood <br />control requirements. <br /> <br />To ensure that there are no or only minimal risks to <br />conservation storage, separate and periodic evaluations of <br />the ability to recover to the minimum flood control operation <br />space based on a conditioned lower quartile and lower decile <br />water supply forecasts would be made as required for release <br />decisions. The use of either a lower quartile or lower decile <br />water supply forecast would depend to a large extent on the <br />actual runoff forecast and conservation storage at the time <br />of the evaluation. <br /> <br />2.5 Methods of Analysis <br /> <br />With water conservation being of primary concern, the <br />methods of analysis deal principally with verifying and <br />quantifying system reservoir storage conditions under <br />releases from Hoover Dam for meeting downstream and flood <br />control requirements and under redistribution of excess water <br />releases. As the thrust of this report is the effective <br />management of the Colorado River reservoir system during <br />periods of full reservoir conditions, the references to long <br />term and short term take on a special significance with <br />respect to the time frame that they are to measure. Since <br />full reservoir conditions are not expected to prevail much <br />beyond the time when the CAP is capable of using surplus <br />waters (sometime around 1992), the reference to "long term" <br />is limited to four or five years. The mode of system <br />reservoir operation would dramatically change after that <br />time. Similarly, the reference to "short term" would be <br />defined by the period encompassed within a 24-month operation <br />study time frame. This would essentially encompass the <br />current operating year and the subsequent year of forecasted <br />runoff. The analysis under each of these time frames, long <br />term and short term, are discussed below. <br /> <br />2.5.1 Long Term. The method of analysis for the long <br />term would be geared to a period of 4-5 years through 1992 <br />when the CAP is expected to have the capability of making use <br />of available surplus water. The Colorado River Simulation <br />System (eRSS) model will be used as a tool to examine the <br />impacts of current year operation on water conservation and <br />other beneficial aspects of river use such as power <br />generation, flood control, and river regulation in future <br />years under various water supply conditions. Also the CRSS <br />model can be used to examine the probabilities of attaining <br />certain levels of vacant reservoir system space at the end of <br />each year through 1992. This information would be used to <br />guide decision making in the current water year. <br /> <br />-21- <br />