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<br />IfCPE-SE values for YOY do not exceed 0,635524 at least once in 10 years (10 percent), a negative <br />response would result (Table II, Figure II). In this case, the rolling IO-year average appears to <br />provide the best index. A negative YOY response would not be indicated until I 0 consecutive years <br />had elapsed since values of CPE-SE last exceeded the threshold. Therefore, the fIrst assessment of <br />YOY response would not need to occur for 10 years (although fIeld data on YOY CPE will be <br />collected every year). <br /> <br />A neutral response would result if values of CPE-SE exceed the threshold at least once in 10 years, but <br />less than once in 5 years (e,g., 2 in 15 years). While the negative and positive examples above are <br />unambiguous, the neutral response scenario could be inteIpreted in several different ways, depending <br />on which method is used (Table 12, Figure 12). In this example, only I year in 14 (7 percent) exceeds <br />the threshold value. The cumulative average exceeds 10 percent only 5 out of 14 years, while the <br />rolling 5-year average exceeds 20 percent (positive response) in 5 of 10 years, but is 0 percent <br />(negative response) during the other 5 years. The rolling 10-year average equals 10 percent (neutral <br />response) in 5 of 5 years. Because the rolling 10-year average discriminates between neutral and <br />negative scenarios with greater reliability than the other two methods, it is recommended for assessing <br />pikeminnow YOY production. <br /> <br />Next Steps <br /> <br />Following is a proposed process for implementing this approach: <br /> <br />I, A technical workgroup will recommend the specific numeric values, as well as their application <br />and inteIpretation. The numbers will be reviewed by the Biology and Management Committees <br />prior to fina1ization. The Service will then make the fina1 determination if reinitiation of <br />consultation will be based on these numbers.. <br /> <br />2, In 2005, or soon after recovery goals have been developed, baseline population values and <br />reinitiation criteria for each of the population indices will be reviewed by the Recovery Program <br />Biology and Management Committees before final approval by the Service. <br /> <br />3. Fish populations and other factors will be monitored according to approved monitoring plans. <br /> <br />4. Beginning in FY 2003, the Recovery Program Director's office will prepare a report every 5 <br />years describing fIsh population status and trends based on the population indices and other <br />factors. The first report would be due December 31, 2003. If reinitiation is biologically <br />justifIed, the Service would document its rationale in a report to the Biology, Management, and <br />hnplementation Committees. The Service would reinitiate consultation in accordance with the <br />provisions of the biological opinion, <br /> <br />7 <br />