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<br />I <br />I <br />,. <br />I <br />II <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />000841 <br /> <br />The information as assembled and developed in the above <br />analysis and as shown in sUf,porting Tables, A-I, A-II, A-III, <br />and A-IV is based on "as-is' conditions. The impact of the <br />ute Domestic Water System is not reflected in projections from <br />this information. <br /> <br />POPulation Predictions: <br /> <br />In making population predictions, one is concerned with <br />two primary considerations, (1) the demands to be placed on <br />the system during its useful life and (2) the ability and <br />willingness of the users to pay for the system. <br /> <br />In the case of the ute District, data is limited because <br />it will be an entirely new system and not an extension or <br />expansion of an old system with historical data which will <br />serve as a guide. For this reason, the limited data available <br />must be utilized to the fullest possible extent. As indicated <br />previously, this supplemental report is designed to utilize <br />available data to develop a realistio but conservative predic- <br />tion of future needs. It will be shown that predictions for <br />Western Colorado, Colorado and the Nation, which have been <br />made by long range planning experts, far exceed those which <br />are made here. <br /> <br />Developing two separate approaches to arrive at a predic- <br />tion of population growth within the ute District, approximately <br />the same results were secured. One approach involved the <br />separate study of typical areas as previously described. The <br />other approach involved starting with basic city, town and <br />rural populations and breaking down the rural population into <br />farm and non-farm categories, as shown in Table A-IV. The <br />latter approach is somewhat more simple and was used to develop <br />future population predictions for use in anticipating revenue <br />for project repayment. <br /> <br />Within the ute Water Conservancy District, exc1uding,the <br />Town of Fruita, the Oliftcn Water District and areas annexed <br />to Grand Junction, there are approximately 4,700 potential <br />water taps. Using the rate of 3.6 persons per tap for rural <br />families, as determined by the Grand Junction Ohamber of <br />Commerce, the population of the district is approximately <br />17,000. The farm and ranch population included in the above <br />number is approximately 5,000. Using these basic population <br />figures and applying the percentages as developed in Table <br />A-IV, the developed historical growth of the Ute District for <br />the period 1940 to 1960 would be as follows: <br /> <br />- 13 - <br /> <br />~ ""'" , <br /> <br />... <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />, <br />