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<br />:' ~ ~ !. ., II <br />.j ~ ._ '" .. J <br /> <br />Study year. In the South, losses from Baseline projections are down from 17 <br />percent to 18 percent of value added by farm production through the Study <br />period. For the Region as a whole, the drought year loss averages 12 <br />percent*. <br /> <br />While production is cut by drought even when imported irrigation water <br />is available under Strategy Five-A, water importation keeps farm returns <br />substantially above Baseline levels in the North. Production is 10 percent <br />above the Baseline in 2000 and 14 percent in 2020. In 2020, the improvement <br />from a drought year without water imports totals 27 percent for value added <br />in the farm sector. <br /> <br />In the South, the effect of imports in cutting drought losses is <br />somewhat more moderate. Nevertheless, farm value added in 2020 in a drought <br />year is 3 percent less than Baseline levels, and 18 percent above the levels <br />which would occur in a drought year without water imports. For the Region as <br />a whole in 2020, water imports change a drought year loss of 12 percent from <br />the Baseline into a gain of more than 10 percent above Baseline. <br /> <br />These drought year gains from water importation work through the economy <br />in a significant way. Table 2 shows net changes from expected Baseline <br />values for total value added (all sectors), household income, and employment. <br />By 2020, water imports shift a drought year economic loss** of 2.8 percent <br />from Baseline into a gain of 2.7 percent, a net favorable saving of 5.5 per- <br />cent or almost $2.7 billion (1977 dollars). The swing in household income is <br />comparable, from a loss of 2.7 percent of Baseline to a gain of 2.2 percent <br />above Baseline in 2020. The stabilizing effect on employment is even more <br />notable, particularly in the northern Ogallala, which is more dependent on <br />agricultural production. In 2020, a drought year employment loss of 2.7 per- <br />cent could be converted to a 3.8 percent gain in employment for the Region as <br />a whole with the import strategy in place. <br /> <br />* These changes do not reflect compensating short-term adjustments in <br />crop prices which may occur if production losses on the High Plains are <br />not offset by higher than normal production in other regions of the <br />country. <br /> <br />** Total value added in the Region. <br /> <br />A-39 <br />