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In conclusion, we can say that the results of this study are most sen- sitive to the commodity price projections used, and these, in turn, are most sensitive to the demand for export of U.S. farm products. The assumptions used to estimate export demand are reasonable if relatively free trade in agricultural commodities continues and there is no major shift in the rela- tionship between domestic production and demand for food in the countries which are currently major customers for U.S. farm products. A collapse in the export market would have a more significant effect on the economy of the High Plains Region than likey variations from the projected levels of energy price, agricultural productivity, or domestic economic growth used in this study. Alternative Future Events A second set of senSitivity analyses was performed to assess the effect of specific events occurring in the Region. Using the regional input/output model, the impacts of three significant changes from the High Plains con- ditions used in the analysis of water management strategies were assessed. This "what if" analysis projected significant economic indicators for sce- narios of drought, enhanced irrigation, and an expanded energy sector. Drought The analysis of management strategies in Chapters Five and Six was based on annual average rainfall. In this sensitivity analysis projections were made of a year in which yields fell as a result of insufficient rainfall to levels based on previous drought year experience. Yield reductions based on examination of statistics for the worst year in ten indicate a loss of 25 percent for dryland prOduction of wheat, sorghum and cotton in comparison to Baseline projections. Irrigated corn yieldS fall by 7 percent, while irrigated sorghum is down 16 percent and cotton down 25 percent. As a result of these drought induced yield reductions, the value added by farm production in the North falls 10 percent below Baseline in each A-38