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<br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />"Sh- <br />U' ~0 <br /> <br /> <br />Basic Estimates of the 1973 Plan <br /> <br />Reservoir Inflow <br /> <br />Ruedi Reservoir <br /> <br />Inflow to Ruedi Reservoir is considered to be the historic flow of <br />the Fryingpan River at Ruedi, Colo. Records are available at this <br />station for October 1959 through September 1964. No correction was <br />made for Busk-Ivanhoe diversions above the gage as these diversions <br />should be of the same pattern and magnitude during the runoff season <br />for which discharge is heing predicted. For water years 1965 through <br />May 1968, discharge at the gaging station on the Fryingpan River near <br />Ruedi, Colo., is corrected for Rocky Fork flow and used as Fryingpan <br />River flow at Ruedi, Colo. Rocky Fork flow was estimated from spot <br />measurements. After May 1968, when storage began at Ruedi Reservoir, <br />the actual inflow computed from measured outflow and change in <br />storage is used. <br /> <br />Using historical data, a probability curve for Ruedi inflow was com- <br />puted by the modified California method and is shown graphically on <br />exhibit 1. Annual inflow of a magnitude equaled or exceeded 50 per- <br />cent of the time was considered the most probable inflow, that with <br />a 90 percent chance of being equaled or exceeded was considered to be <br />the reasonable minimum, and that with only a 10 percent chance of be- <br />ing equaled or exceeded was considered the reasonable maximum. The <br />October through March inflow was the average 1960 through 1972 inflow <br />for this period. After October through March inflow was subtracted, <br />the remainder was distributed between the months of April through <br />September according to the distribution of the mean historical inflow. <br /> <br />Storable inflow was considered to be the inflow less bypass for the <br />protection of recreational values, including fishing on the Fryingpan <br />River below Ruedi Reservoir. <br /> <br />Inflow to Ruedi will be reduced by estimated diversions to the Arkan- <br />sas River Basin. Four points of diversion will be in operation in <br />1973; Sawyer Creek, Chapman Gulch, South Fork, and the Fryingpan River <br />below Marten Creek. Estimates of these diversions are made using div- <br />ersion data from the Western Slope Operation Study and probability <br />analysis. The 10-, 50-, and 90-percent chance values were obtained <br />from the probability curve shown on exhibit 2 and are considered to <br />represent the reasonable minimum, most probable, and reasonable maxi- <br />mum diversions, respectively. <br /> <br />14 <br />