WSP02437 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

I . I I . I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I 71 Barring major changes in the weather patterns, it is anticipated that energy reserves in the Northwest Power Pool Area will be sufficient to meet requirements for firm power in 1982, due to the fact that energy loads have been underrunning forecasts, and that adequate hydro energy will be available based on the April 1, 1982 runoff projection which indicates that the January-July runoff will be 130 MAF (119 percent) of the 15 year average. Capacity margins are also anticipated to be adequate. The Rocky Mountain and Arizona-New Mexico Power Areas are anticipating adequate reserves and energy capability for 1982. Although some individual utilities in California are concerned about their adequacy of power supply, when considered on an area basis the California-Nevada Power Area reserves and energy capabilities appear adequate for 1982, due, in part, to the fact that the 1982 peak demand is forecast to be less than the actual 1981 summer peak demand that occurred during an abnormally hot period. This projected decrease in peak demand is due to anticipated continued load management and conservation, the depressed economy and a return to normal summer temperatures. Pacific Gas and Electric Company is expecting their reserves to reach extremely low levels, necessitating outside purchases to maintain minimum reserve requirements. A capacity shortage curtailment plan identical to the one utilized the last three years by the five major California utilities has been placed in effect during 1982. Under the plan, statewide Stage I appeals would commence when the reserve margin of anyone of the major California electric utilities falls below 5% of its peak demand. Should the electrical supply reserve margin continue to deteriorate, a Stage II statewide appeal would be made by all California utilities when the supply margin for any electric utility is expected to drop to, or actually does drop to, 3% of its peak demand. Should the capacity deficiency of the troubled utility continue to fall to 1.5 percent, or below, and its system is no longer able to supply its customer requirements from available resources, Stage III of the peak reduction plan would be initiated by that deficient system, but not on a statewide basis. Stage III, which is to be implemented only as a last resort, calls for mandatory service interruption within the service area of the deficient system until additional capacity becomes available or the load decreases. FUEL AVAILABILITY All fuel supplies appear to be adequate for 1982. For instance, Southern California Edison Company reports that the availability of natural gas projected for 1982 will provide approximately 39% of SCE's energy requirements and adequate supplies of low sulfur fuel oil are under contract to support the remaining projected oil-fired resource requirements. Nuclear and coal fuels are also prDvided under stable long term agreements involving domestic suppliers. Coal supplies are projected to be adequate throughout the region.