WSP02437

• File Number: 8220.100.50
• Description: CRSP - Power Issues
• Basin: Colorado Mainstem
• Date: 1/1/1982
• Author: West. Sys. Coord. Co
• Title: Western Systems Coordinating Council Ten-Year Coordinated Plan Summary 1982 - 1991
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Publication

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59

IMPACT OF LONG LEAD TIMES AND DELAYS

The preceding sections of this report summarize the WSCC Member
Systems' coordinated plans for the generation and transmission facilities
required to meet the region's projected power requirements reliably and
economically during the next ten years. The forecast of future load
requirements is the cornerstone upDn which this planning is based.
However, future demands for electricity are difficult to project due to
the effect of such variables as energy conservation, uncertain economic
conditions, the substitution of electric energy for primary fuels and
changing energy cost relationships. The 1982 load forecasts for the
ten-year period are lower than estimated a year ago thus reducing but not
eliminating the adverse impact of delays associated with construction of
new generating facilities. Figure 2 on page 16 graphically illustrates
the decline in projected firm peak loads over the past decade and
demonstrates the planning uncertainties that must be faced in a changing
environment.

The prDblems associated with long lead times and unforeseen
delays for generating facilities, coupled with the uncertainty that
presently exists in predicting future electric power requirements are of
major concern to the power industry. Lead times for the construction of
power facilities are long compared with the effects of consumer decisions
on the demand for electricity.

It is conceivable that future power requirements could be higher
than presently projected if the region's economic growth was to exceed
current estimates, a significant conversion from primary fuels to electric
energy occurred, or conservation efforts were relaxed. The simultaneous
occurrence of these events could result in a sudden and significant
increase in power requirements above those projected. In the event that
power requirements exceed current projections, combustion turbine units
would be the only viable option available to meet unplanned near-term (3-6
years) load growth due to the long lead times associated with most other
sources of electrical energy. However, this resource type requires oil
which is expensive or gas, the use of which may be restricted. In
addition, the National Energy Act restricts the construction of new base
load generation facilities that utilize gas or oil as the primary fuel.
Resources such as nuclear and coal could not be utilized as the current
lead times are 10.0 to 15.3 years for nuclear and 6.3 to 11.2 years for
coal-fired facilities.

The long lead times and delays can be attributed to the required
regulatory approvals, intervention and subsequent court action by
environmental groups, voluminous environmental studies, the scarcity of
suitable and acceptable plant sites and financial constraints due to lack
of timely rate relief and high interest rates. In addition to creating
the potential hazard of a power shortage and the degradation of system
reliability, the long lead times and delays of proposed facilities may
also have a serious impact upon the social and economic well-being of
individuals at the customer level.