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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />VI. Determination <br /> <br />Recognizing the status of water use in the Upper Colorado River Basin, the <br />physical availability, and institutional constraints, it is determined <br />through hydrologic investigation that sufficient water is reasonably likely <br />to be available under the provision of Section ll(a) of Public Law 87-483, <br />to fufill contracts that involve Navajo Reservoir water depletions up to <br />94,500 acre-feet annually. Of this amount, 3,000 acre-feet annually has <br />been reserved for indefinite use by the Jicarilla Apache Tribe, 69,000 <br />acre-feet annually is available for marketing through the year 2039, and <br />22,500 acre-feet of water annually is reasonably likely to be available for <br />depletion from Navajo Reservoir on a longer term basis. <br /> <br />Extensive hydrologic data analyses, present Colorado River Storage project <br />operating policies, and required and projected Upper Basin water <br />deliveries, support the Upper Basin depletion limit of 6.0 MAF. This 6.0 <br />MAF yield from the Upper Colorado River Basin is recognized by the Bureau <br />and the Department as an estimate which takes into account risk and <br />shortage criteria as well as providing for the minimum operational release <br />of 8.23 MAF at Lees Ferry. The 6.0 MAF figure is an estimate to be used <br />for planning purposes only and is not intended to be an interpretation of <br />the Upper Basin entitlement according to the provisions of the Colorado <br />River Compacts and other law of the river. <br /> <br />Therefore, we conclude that the projection of water uses now envisioned in <br />the Upper Basin by year 2040 can reach a 6.0 MAF depletion level without <br />impairment of the Upper Basin's ability to meet its water delivery <br />obligation to the Lower Basin and the Republic of Mexico. <br /> <br />21 <br />