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<br />OO 5"S T""'"''" . <br /> <br />~. .~'-' ......."t)............. .....~~..~~...... <br /> <br />&l4fO~ 7.~ <br /> <br />convection shifted eastward from the Indian Ocean to the western <br />tropical Pacific. The greatest wind and convection anomalies occurred <br />north of the equator in the western Pacific, associated with two <br />typhoons. It is too early to determine whether this event will have any <br />significant impact on the thermal structure of the equatorial Pacific <br />Ocean. <br /> <br />Sliyhtiy more than half of the statistical and coupled model forecasts <br />indicate near neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific (Nino 3.4 5ST <br />anomalies between -0.50C and +0.50C) through the northern summer <br />and fall 2004. The remaining forecasts indicate borderline EI Nino <br />conditions (Nino 3.4 5ST anomalies slightly greater than +0.50C) will <br />develop within the next 3-6 months. Given the recent trends and <br />observed oceanic and atmospheric patterns discussed above; EN50- <br />neutra.1 conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 months <br />(through September 2004). <br /> <br />"' <br /> <br />This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded <br />institutions. Weekly updates for 5ST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of . <br />the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate <br />Prediction Center web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.nC?aa.gov (Weeklv <br />Uodate). Forecasts for the evolution of EI Nino/La Nina are updated <br />monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics <br />Bulletin. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO <br />Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send your e-mail address to: <br /> <br />Climate Prediction Center <br />National Centers for Environmental Prediction <br />NOAA/National Weather Service <br />Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304 <br />e-mail: vernon.kousky@noaa.gov <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />,. <br /> <br />NQAN NalIonal Weather Serw::e <br />NatiOnal Cenlef's fa" EIMnrlmeotal Predic:tioo <br />Climate Prediction Center <br />5200Aulh Road <br />Camp Springs. Maryland 20746 <br />Climale PrediCtial Center WI!b Team <br />Page last modified: J0Y 10, 2003 <br /> <br />Dlsd8lmer <br /> <br />-- <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />.J....r~ <br /> <br />hnp'lJwww.cpc_nCl:p.noaa g()v/produclsJanaly SIS _ monitori ng/enso _ad... i sory I <br /> <br />Pase20 <br />