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<br />00553 <br /> <br />.._--..~. <br /> <br /> <br />CPCSe.art:h <br />I<:K-ujICOI <br />""""'u. <br />Our Mission <br />Who We Arw <br /> <br />HOME> Expert Assessments> ENSO Diagnostk: DiSOJssion <br /> <br />EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION <br />(ENSO) <br />DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION <br /> <br />""""',u. <br />CPClnf~lion <br />CPC Web ream <br /> <br />issued by <br />CUMATE PREDICTlON CENTER/NCEP <br /> <br />July 8, 2004 <br />SvnoDsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue during the <br />next 3 months. <br /> <br />Oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific basin continued to <br />renect the neutral phase of the ENSO cycle during June 2004. Sea <br />surface temperatures were warmer~than-average in the western <br />equatorial Pacific (Nino 4 region), near average In the central equatorial <br />Pacific (Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 regions) and cooler-than-average in the <br />eastern equatorial Pacific (Nino 1+2 region) during the month (Ra. 1). <br />Positive SST anomalies greater than +O.50C (.....1 OF) were found between <br />1600E and 150oW, while negative SST anomalies less than -O.50C were <br />found between 950W and the South American coast (.fi9.......l). <br /> <br />During the past several months, positive SST anomalies have persisted <br />in the west~central equatorial Pacific (1S0oE-1600W), low~level easterly <br />wind anomalies (enhanced east-to-west flow) have been observed over <br />the central equatorial Pacific, and low-level west~rty anomalies have <br />persisted over the western equatorial Pacific (Fic. 3. top). These <br />features have favored persistent enhanced tropical convection (negative <br />OLR anomalies) in the region 140oE-180oW (Fia. 3. bottom). The low- <br />level easterly wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific have <br />also contributed to a steeper~than~average thennocline slope in the <br />upper ocean, which is reflected in the pattern of subsurface temperature <br />anomalies [positive (negative) in the central-western (eastern) <br />equatorial Pacific] (Fic. 4). Both the surface and subsurface temperature <br />fields showed trends toward near-average conditions (decreased <br />magnitude of the anomalies) during June. <br /> <br />Considerable intraseasonal variability (MJO activity) in recent months <br />has resulted in week-to-week and month-to-month variability in many <br />atmospheric and oceanic indices. During mid-June through early July the <br />easterlies weakened in many areas of the equatorial Pacific, as enhanced <br /> <br />hrtp ,,_.... cpc: n<<p "oal 10\ -Pfo.:lUCU..'Iru.ln.._IJIO""onlllt'en..,_IJ.,wn <br /> <br />....1J.l7:_ <br /> <br />_I'I\IO'S_OOI~ <br /> <br />.. <br />~.I~ <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />"" <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />~ ,.. lof" <br />