Laserfiche WebLink
<br />...."._.~. ...u.~""" ...cu,,,. - 1:._,.,.." ^~)"~....UC"'). L~.,Cllllle.lIllU talil t'ilClnC Hwncanc Uullook <br /> <br />314/04 1""7 I <br /> <br />00548 <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />For the 2004 tropical eastern North Pacific hurricane season, the ACE index is <br />expected to be 650/0-95"10 of the medIan. The main climate signals for this <br />prediction are the expected continuation of ENSO neutral conditions through <br />August 2004, combined with the ongoing trend of reduced eastern North <br />Pacific hurricane activity observed since 1995. This reduced activity has <br />occurred coincident with generally above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons <br />observed since 1995. <br /> <br />\' <br />.' <br /> <br />The East Pacific hLifr"iCdfle:: ~eason is expected to bring 13-15 tropical storms, <br />with 6-8 becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 becoming major hurricanes <br />{categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale}. While it is reasonable to <br />expect this range of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, the <br />total seasonal activity measured by the ACE Index can certainly be in the <br />expected range without all three of these criteria being met. <br /> <br />Most tropical storms that form in the eastern North Pacific track westward <br />into open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii and beyond. An additional one <br />to two tropical storms either head northward or recurve toward western <br />Mexico, and influence the summer precipitation amounts there. Regardless of <br />their track East Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes can supply much <br />needed moisture to the arid southwestern United States. <br /> <br />::'.,~ <br /> <br />CAUTIONARY NOTES <br /> <br />\' <br /> <br />1) It is important to recognize that it is currently not possible to confidently <br />predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of land falling <br />hurricanes, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane <br />this season. Therefore, residents and government agencies of coastal and <br />near-coastal regions should always maintain hurricane preparedness efforts <br />regardless of the overall seasonal outlook. <br /> <br />2) Far more damage can be done by one major hurricane hitting a heavily <br />popUlated area than by several hurricanes hitting sparsely populated areas <br />or, of course, not making landfall at all. Therefore, hurricane-spawned <br />disasters can occur even in years with near-normal or below-normal levels of ' <br />activity . <br /> <br />.~ <br /> <br />FORECASTERS <br /> <br />NOAA's Climate Prediction Center <br />Dr. Muthuvel Chelliah, Physical Scientist, MuthuveI.Chelliah(q)noaa.aov <br />Dr. Gerald Bell, Meteorologist, Gerrv.Bell(q)noaa.aov <br />Dr. Kingtse Mo, Physical Scientist, Kinatse.Mo(q)noaa.aov <br /> <br />NOAA's Hurricane Research Division <br />Dr. Christopher Landsea, Meteorologist, Chris.Landsea(q)noaa.aov <br /> <br />NOAA's National Hurricane Center <br />Eric Blake, Meteorologist, Eric.S.Blake(q)noaa.aov <br /> <br />~.... <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />\. <br /> <br />NOAN NatIonld Weahw" SeMce <br />National Cemtn tor ErMronmentBI Predi::IiaI <br />Climate Prediction Center <br />5200 Auth Road <br />Camp Springs, Maryland 20746 <br />Cin'I8Ic Prediction Center 'M!b Team <br />Page last modified: June 17, 2004 <br /> <br />Olsdaimer <br /> <br />Prillac:yf'olk:y <br /> <br />http;/Iwww.cpcnccp.noaa.gov/produCTs/Epac:_hurrlEpac_.burricanc.html <br /> <br />Pr.~~l cf2 <br />