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<br /> <br />CPC S...-ch <br />Icpc-@2] <br />.......'" <br />Our Miuion <br />Who W& Are <br /> <br />HOME> Expert Assessments> Experimental East Pacffic Hullicane Outloolc: <br /> <br />COPY FOR YOUR <br />NOAA PRESS RELEASE INF~Q'\ATlON <br /> <br />NOAA: 2004 Experimental East Pacific Hurricane <br />Outlook <br /> <br />c;.....,,,, <br />CPC'nrom..tion <br />CPCW&bTNm <br /> <br />Issued: 17 June 2004 <br /> <br />Realtime monitoring <br />of tropical East Pacific conditions can be obtained here <br />Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlantic conditions can be obtained here <br /> <br />Send us your comments about this product <br /> <br />SUMMARY <br /> <br />.'" <br /> <br />There Is a 45% probability of a below normal tropical eastern North Pacific <br />hurricane season during 2004, a 45% probability of near-normal season, and <br />only a 10% probability of an above-normal season, according to a consensus <br />of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's <br />(NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). the Hurricane Research Division <br />(HRDl and the National Hurricane Center {NHCl. See Background Information <br />.for NOM's definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. <br /> <br />;"' <br /> <br />The 2004 tropical eastern North Pacific outlook calls for 13-15 tropical storms <br />(average is 15 to 16), with 6-8 becoming hurricanes (average is 9), and 2-4 <br />becoming major hurricanes (average is 4 to 5). This predicted activity is <br />based on an expected continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through <br />August, combined ~it~ the overall reduced hurricane activity observed since <br />1995. <br /> <br />This is the second year that NOM has issued an experimental outlook for the <br />eastern North Pacific hurricane region, which covers the eastern North Pacific <br />east of 140oW. Official hurricane outlooks for this region are expected to <br />begin with the 2005 season. <br /> <br />DISCUSSION <br /> <br />1. Expected Activity - 45010 Chance Below Normal, 450/0 Chance Near <br />Normal, 100/0 chance Above Normal <br />An important measure of the overall seasonal activity is NOAA's Accumulated <br />Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the collective strength and <br />duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a given hurricane season <br />(see Backaround Information). The ACE index is also used to define the <br />above., near-, and below-normal seasons. <br /> <br />Imp fI...... (:pC nUl' ~O&I ,o,'p'adlla"l:PK_"""','q>ac_"umCLb( IIlml <br /> <br />"4JO.l 7.;7 <br />J <br /> <br /> <br />,"" <br /> <br />\ <br /> <br />l I <br />, <br /> <br />~. <br /> <br />'" <br /> <br />-...,... <br /> <br />\ <br /> <br />'_,(IoU <br />