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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />REGIONAL ECONOMY WITHOUT PROJECT <br /> <br />the water either under the theory that these rights have been held in trust by the United <br />States on behalf of SJWC and the rights would revert to SJWC, or Reclamation could assign <br />the rights to SJWC; and (2) the water would revert back to the public trust, subject to all <br />New Mexico appropriators. This latter possibility could have dramatic impacts on SJWC <br />because the rivers in San Juan County are fully appropriated and the United States, holder <br />of the junior rights for the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project and the San Juan-Chama Project <br />have agreed with the New Mexico State Engineer to close off new appropriations. Thus <br />SJWC would have to either condemn or purchase existing water rights to develop future <br />water supplies. <br /> <br />Because of the high degree of uncertainty regarding the previously described legal <br />questions, two probable scenarios have been composed for the SJWC to develop 30,800 acre- <br />feet if ALP is not constructed. The first scenario assumes that SJWC would receive the <br />water rights for 30,800 acre-feet with a 1956 priority date and that the supply would not be <br />limited under the allocation of the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact or some other <br />interstate limitation. The second scenario assumes that the 30,800 acre-feet would revert <br />back to public trust subject to appropriation, thereby requiring SJWC to purchase water <br />rights presently used for irrigation. A discussion of the major elements and impacts of these <br />scenarios is provided below. <br /> <br />Scenario No.1 - SJWC Receives Reserved Rights to 30,800 acre-Feet for M&I Use <br /> <br />Under this scenario, the SJWC would retain the Animas River water rights for 30,800 acre- <br />feet per year, and the assumption is made that there are no legal limitations on the annual <br />delivery of this water. However, there would be certain physical limitations affecting <br />annual deliveries. It appears that the physical supply of this 30,800 acre-feet from the <br />Animas River would not be limited in the vast majority of years, but the years with a <br />limited flow would have a serious impact on the M&I supply. Kirkpatrick6 has indicated <br />that for 94 to 96 percent of the years (45 of 47 years), the water would be available from the <br />Animas River on a direct flow basis. However, in the 2 of 47 years that the flow is not <br /> <br />6 Kirkpatrick, L. Randy, Executive Director of San Juan Water Commission, Personal Communication, <br />1994. <br /> <br />3-17 <br />