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<br />DRAFT <br /> <br />A set of 17 hydrologic sequences (monthly streamflow data from, <br /> <br /> <br />throughout the basin) which reflect both natural flows derived from <br /> <br />hi stori c or observed data and syntheti cally generated natu ra 1 flows <br /> <br />developed by use of accepted statistical procedures were used in the <br /> <br />analysis. <br /> <br />These sequences were 15 years in length and ranged from the driest <br /> <br />observed sequence to the wettest observed sequence. In addition to the <br />driest and wettest observed sequences, 15 intermediate sequences were <br /> <br />specifically selected to approximate the following five probability <br /> <br /> <br />levels (I.) upper decile, (2) upper quartile, (3) mean, (4) lower quar- <br /> <br /> <br />tile and (5) lower decile. Three sequences were selected for each prob- <br /> <br />ability level including two synthetically generated sequences-one with <br />hi gher flows in the earl y years and lower f1 ows in the 1 ater years and <br />one with lower flows in the early years and higher flows in the later <br />years - and one sequence derived from historical data which could follow <br />either pattern. Two depletion scenarios (estimated future water con- <br />sumption) - the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum's "Low" <br />schedule and the Bureau of Reclamation or "USBR" schedule - were used to, <br /> <br />represent the various estimates of future development. <br /> <br />" <br />" <br /> <br />(' The results of the model runs show the expected impact of each strategy <br />!J on 16 parameters including end of study reservoir content, maximum <br />.n <br /> <br />monthly reservoir releases, power generation, salinity and deliveries to <br /> <br />, <br />.., <br /> <br />various water users. Tradeoffs between beneficial' impacts of a given <br /> <br />'I <br />'I <br /> <br />strategy on one parameter (such as a reduction in peak releases from <br /> <br />2 <br /> <br />.,~7:-:-'~:-::"7~.:"",~"~:~:'"-:~'~.-:-:."--:r . <br />, , <br /> <br />. . '. ~..' ". <br />.-\.' <br /> <br />.' -;,r'-:-C. <br /> <br /><..~,..' ,~ <br /> <br />: '~~"''::~''.~~:- :;'1"~~'~~>~-'~--:~,o.;'5~.':"~' <br /> <br />~'.o; . --"'_-; <br />