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') _J There are 2 requirements that must be met for a surplus declaration to be possible: 1) forecast beneficial use in the Lower Basin must be greater than 7,5 million acre-feet (maf). and 2) sufficient water must be available to satisfy those needs in excess of 7,5 maf, Sufficient water will be defined by the Surplus Guidelines, If these Surplus Guidelines are implemented in the 1995 AOP and Lower Basin uses exceed 7.5 maf, payback provisions will not be necessary, V. Shortage Strategy Discussion It was suggested that a shortage strategy could be developed using the same critical period analysis, so that the elevation is determined which is required to carry the system through the critical period of record for a specific demand, The Mead Starting Contents curve in the Surplus Guidelines assumes the reservoir will be drawn down below 1120 feet to 1050 feet, This could be used for shortage guidelines, but it's terribly conservative. Nevada is not in the position to make a decision on the Surplus Guidelines when shortage guidelines have not been studied, The LC Region and the Lower Basin states will meet to draft an approach to developing shortage guidelines, VI. Conclusions and Next Meetings Reclamation will draft the 1995 Annual Operating Plan, which will include the Draft Surplus Guidelines, for review at the next meeting, Although Reclamation is not recommending it atthis time, the Operating Criteria may be revised to incorporate these Surplus Guidelines, Although there is not a linkage between shortage and surplus in the short term, shortage guidelines will be investigated, A meeting of the LC Region and the Lower Basin states to plan shortage studies is scheduled for: Shortage Studies Meeting March 1, 1994 Las Vegas John Redlinger will be the contact person, Anyone may participate in the meeting, 4