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<br />70A5: 70% Avoidance of Spills at Mead with 5-year Look-Ahead <br /> <br />Is Mead elevation above the ~rig~e& elevation at the beginning of the <br />year? <br /> <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />.---r----- h ~ 1 lA, 5. ~d ~Ylc~ <br />· ~e, declare a :full surplus for t e yeaIj <br />.qj <br />· how is the Mead trigger elevation determined? <br />· run 900 stochastic hydrologic traces <br />· determine the beginning elevation for which 30% of all traces <br />spill at least once in the next 5 years <br /> <br /> <br />e <br /> <br />· Note this look-ahead is different than the concept applied in <br />runoff alternative (70R5) e <br /> <br />US Bureau of Reclamation <br /> <br />June 3, 1997 <br />