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<br />" ' <br /> <br />previously thought, based on other similar assumptions. At the previous <br />estimate of firm yield at 5.45 MAF, the application of risk and shortage <br />criteria (esulted in a reasonable depletion level of 5.8 MAF. Applying <br />similar risk and shortage criteria to the present hydrologic determinatio <br />c:Ps those applied to earlier determinations, the increase of Upper Basin <br /><::-Jfirm yield to 5.55 MAF will result in a reasonable depletion level of 6.0 <br />~F. This has been discussed with the Basin States and the magnitude and <br />-Jbonsequences of such risk and shortages are understood. Therefore, based <br />tv <br />on an allowable over-al1 basin shortage of six percent and a probability <br />meeting the demands about 98.5 percent of the time (see Figure 1), it is <br />recommended that the Secretary certify that 6.0 million acre feet is <br />reasonably available in the Upper Basin for beneficial consumptive use. <br />This figure takes into account the above risk and shortage criteria as wel <br />as provides for a minimum operational release of 8.23 MAF at Lees Ferry. <br /> <br />11 <br />