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<br />.n"-'i ~ f) j"") <br />\) _ .:, ,.... .) i <br /> <br />SECTION 1.0 <br />INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY <br /> <br />This document reports the energy commodity price projections devel- <br />oped by Black & Veatch, Consulting Engineers for use in the Six-State <br />High Plains--Ogallala Aquifer Area Study. Price projections of both <br />primary energy commodities and end-use energy commodities, e. g., gaso- <br />line, natural gas liquids, and electricity, were made consistent with the <br />long-term time frame of the study and with the analytic methods adopted <br />for the High Plains Study. <br />The following paragraphs describe the relation of the energy price <br />projections to the rest of the study elements and summarize the energy <br />price projections and the projection methodology. Subsequent sections of <br />this report provide detailed descriptions of the various projections and <br />the results of an analysis of the farm enterprise models' sensitivity to <br />energy price projections. <br /> <br />1.1 PURPOSE OF ENERGY PRICE PROJECTIONS <br />The scope of work prepared by the High Plains Council identified <br />the assessment of energy prices and technologies as a separate study <br />activity to be performed by the contractor. The specific focus of the <br />energy price assessment at the time the High Plains Council formulated its <br />"Statement of Work" for the study was the future cost of irrigation: <br />"What energy prices should be used to cost ground water pumping?"* <br />Although the objective of the scope of work was on end-use energy <br />prices for irrigation, other study elements also required projections of <br />primary energy commodity prices in order to estimate the future energy <br />related income in thEl region. Black & Veatch, as a member of the General <br />Contractor team, prElpared a consistent set of primary and end-use energy <br /> <br />*"High Plains Project, as approved at the High Plains Council Meeting, <br />February 21, 1977." <br /> <br />1-1 <br /> <br />w. <br /> <br />