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<br />water resource projects, Is recognized to
<br />be the real rate or return on non-Federal
<br />1nvestments. The best approx:lmat1oD. to
<br />the conceptually correct -rate is the aver-
<br />age rate of return on private investment
<br />In physical' Il5Sets, Including all speclflc
<br />taxes on capital or the eamJngs cr capi-
<br />tal and excluding the rate of general
<br />1nfiat1on, weighted by the proportion of
<br />prlva..te investment in each major sector.
<br />
<br />E. CONSIDERATION AND COMPARISON OF
<br />ALTERNATIVES
<br />
<br />. A range of possible alternatives to meet
<br />needs and problems, including types of
<br />measures and alternatives capable of ap-
<br />plication by various levels of government
<br />and by nongovernmental interests,
<br />should be studied. These alternatives
<br />should be evaluated or judged as to their
<br />contribuUona to the multiobjectlves.
<br />Plans, or increments thereto, will not
<br />be "recommended for Federal develop-
<br />ment that, although they have beneficial
<br />efl'ects on the multiobJectives, would
<br />physically. or economJcally preclude
<br />alternative non-Federal plans which
<br />would l1kely be Wldertaken In the ab..
<br />Bence of the Federal plan and whIch
<br />would more effectively contribute to the -
<br />multlobJectives when comparably eval-
<br />uated according to these Principles.
<br />
<br />r. PERIOD OF ANALYSIS
<br />
<br />The periOd of analys1s will be the lesser
<br />of (1) the period of time over .which the
<br />plan can reasonablY be expected to serve
<br />a useful purpose considering probable
<br />technological trends a1fectlng various
<br />aiternatlv.s, or (2) the period of time
<br />when further dJscounting of beneftcial
<br />and adverse effects w1ll h&ve no apprecia-
<br />ble effects on design. Appropriate con-
<br />sideration will be given to long-tenn en-
<br />vironmental and socia.l facto:rn which
<br />may extend beyond periods sign1flcant
<br />for analysis of natJooal economic devel-
<br />opment or regional development bene-
<br />ficial and adverse effects.
<br />
<br />G. SCHEDULING
<br />
<br />Plans should be scheduled for imple-
<br />mentation in relation to needs so that
<br />deSired multiobJectlve beneftc1al etfects
<br />are achieved e:Mc1entlY. Beneficial and
<br />adverse effects occurrlng according to
<br />dUferent patterns in time are affected
<br />d11ferenUy by the .discount process when
<br />plans are scheduled for implementation
<br />a.t alternative future times. Therefore,
<br />plan formulation should analyze the
<br />alternative schedules of implementation
<br />to Identify the schedule that would result
<br />in the most desirable mix of contributions
<br />to the multiobjectives when the beneficial
<br />and adverse effects of a plan are appro-
<br />priately discounted.
<br />
<br />H. RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
<br />
<br />Risk is characterized by a distribution
<br />of events occurring according to reason-
<br />ably well-known probabilities, even
<br />though their sequence and t1me of oc-
<br />currence cannot be determined. Fre-
<br />quency analYsis in hydrology, where long
<br />records are available or can be mathe-
<br />matically simulated, ts an example or
<br />
<br />NOTICES
<br />
<br />predictable risk. In such situations, it
<br />may be necessary to choose between plan-
<br />rung for average or probable conditions
<br />. and planning for extreme events. When
<br />tb1s is done, the nature of the choice and
<br />Its relationship to the multlobJectlves will
<br />be clearly stated. Predictable risk; based
<br />upon past exPerience, should not be di-:
<br />vorced from predictable or foreseeable
<br />trends which would alter probabilities
<br />based solelY upon previous experience.
<br />Uncertainty is characterized by the ab-
<br />sence of any known probab1J1ty distribu-
<br />tion of events. This is often the situation
<br />In water resources planning. The nature
<br />of uncertainty associated with the plan-
<br />ning study, strategies proposed to. deal
<br />with uncertainty, and their impact on
<br />the multiobJectives should be reported.
<br />In addition, sensitivity analysiS may be
<br />employed to analyze uncertaIn situa-
<br />tions.
<br />L SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
<br />
<br />Plans should be examined to determine
<br />their sensitivity to data. avaUab1l1ty and
<br />to alternative assumpUOD.s as to future.
<br />economic, demographic, environmental.
<br />and technologiC trends. Selected alterna-
<br />tive projections and assumptlons that are
<br />reasonably probable and that, 11 reallzed.
<br />would appreciably a1lect plan design or
<br />scheduling shou~d be analyzed.
<br />
<br />J. UPDATING PLANS
<br />
<br />Because, of ra.pid change in social
<br />economic, environmental, technologic.
<br />physical. and other factors, a plan that
<br />1B not implemented within a reasonable
<br />time after completion should be reviewed
<br />as provided in the Standards, to ascertain
<br />whether it continues to be the best alter-
<br />native to achieve the multlobjectlves.
<br />
<br />V. PLAN FORMULATION
<br />
<br />Plans will be directed to the improve-
<br />ment 1ri the qual1ty of life by meeting
<br />current and projected needs and prob-
<br />lems as identified by the desires of people
<br />in such a manner that improved contri-
<br />butions are made to society's prefer-
<br />ences for national economic development
<br />and .environmental quality .and where
<br />approved in advance for regional devel-
<br />opment. These plans should be formu-
<br />la.ted to reflect national, regional, State.
<br />and local needs or problems.
<br />MultiobJective planning of water and
<br />land resources is a part of broader publIc
<br />and" private planning to meet regional
<br />and local needs and to alleviate prob-
<br />leMS. Therefore. planning for water and
<br />land resources should be carefully re-
<br />lated to other regional or local planning
<br />activities and should include active par-
<br />ticipation of all interests.
<br />Plans for water and land resources w111
<br />focus upon the spec1fled. components of
<br />the muIUobJectives desired for the desig-
<br />nated region. river basin, State or local
<br />planning setting, These are exp;..".,ed In
<br />terms of projected needs and problems
<br />Identlfled In each planning sett.lng,
<br />The plannlng process Inclu<les the fol-
<br />lowing major steps:
<br />(1) Specify component.s of the multi-
<br />objectives relevant to the planning
<br />setting;
<br />
<br />24147
<br />
<br />(2) Evaluate resource capabU1ties and
<br />expected conditions without any plan;
<br />(3) Formulate alternative plans to
<br />Bchieve varying levels of contributibns to
<br />the spectfled components of the multJ-
<br />objectives;
<br />(4) Analyze the differences among al-
<br />ternative plans which reflect different
<br />emphasis among the specified compo-
<br />nents of the multiobjectives;
<br />(5) Review and reconsider, if neces-
<br />sary, the specified com)X>nents for the
<br />pla.nning setting and formula.te addi-
<br />tional alternative plans as appropriate;
<br />and
<br />(6) Select a reconunended plan based
<br />upon an evaluation of the trade off's
<br />among the various alternative plans.
<br />
<br />A. SPECIFICATION OF COMPO~ENTS OF THE
<br />MULTIOBJECTlVES
<br />
<br />At the outset and throughout the plan-
<br />ning pr~s. the responsible pla.nn1ng
<br />organization will consult appropriate
<br />Federal, regional, State, and local groups
<br />to ascertain the components of the mul-
<br />tiobjectives that are s1gn1flcantly Telated
<br />to the use and management of the re-
<br />sources in the planning setting. These
<br />will be exPressed In tenns of needs and
<br />problems.
<br />The objective and components selected
<br />for use in formulating alternative plans
<br />should be of concern to the Nation, and
<br />the objectives should be those that can
<br />reasonably be expected to be substan-
<br />tially influenced through the manage-
<br />ment and development altern.atives
<br />available to the planner. The objectives
<br />for whIch plans are formulated. can be
<br />expected to change over time and be-
<br />tween areas of the Nation as preferences
<br />and POSSibillties change and di1fer. These
<br />changes w1ll be reflected in the Water
<br />Resources Council's Standards.
<br />The components of the regional devel-
<br />opment obJecti.ve are to be considered ex-
<br />plicitly in plan fonnulation in a particu-
<br />lar plWlIling activity only with advance
<br />approval.
<br />The specified components will be de-
<br />flned so that meaningful alternative
<br />levels of achievement are identlfled. ThIs
<br />w11l facllltate the formulation of alter-
<br />native plans in cases where there may
<br />be technical, legislative, or adm1n1stra-
<br />tive constraints to full achievement of
<br />objectives.
<br />
<br />B. EVALUATION OF CONDITIONS WITHOUT A
<br />PLAN
<br />
<br />The identification of the specified
<br />components of objectives will necessarUy
<br />involve an appraisal of future economIc,
<br />environmental, and social conditions ex-
<br />pected without the plan as compa.red
<br />with those. desired by people for the
<br />planning area.. In addition, a sufficient in-
<br />ventory and appraisal of the water and
<br />land resource base of the planning area
<br />will be necessary.
<br />
<br />c. FORMULATION OF ALTERNATIvE PLANS
<br />
<br />The planning process involves an
<br />evaluation of alternative means. includ-
<br />Ing both structural and nonstructural
<br />measures, to achieve desired objectives.
<br />
<br />No. 245-Pt. 1-6
<br />
<br />FEDERAL REGISTER, VOl. 36, NO. 245-TUESDAY, DECEMBER 21, 1971
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