|
<br />the extent and magnitude of unsatisfied
<br />component needs and Indicate tile re-
<br />quiremen.t tor sOme spec1:tlc plan of ac-
<br />tion to assure their sat1sfaction. To the
<br />extent. that the water and land resoUl'Ce:l
<br />without a.ny planned action are Wlft.ble
<br />to meet current and projected needs or
<br />to .the extent that resource managa.ment
<br />enables the needs to be met more em-
<br />clently. there Is an evident Justification
<br />for formulating alternative plans.
<br />In tb1s formulation step, the tlrst t&k
<br />is to undertake a selective inventory of
<br />the quantity and character1st1cs of w8lter
<br />and land :resources of the planning. area
<br />llllld an a.ppra,1sa1 of oppol'tunitles for
<br />further use of t.b.ese resources. Problems
<br />llmttlng the use of resources should also
<br />be Identl1led ,
<br />The relOl1I'CEO Inventory should In-
<br />eh1de data on all physical fact.o1'll appro-
<br />priate to the Inve&tlgatlon. Exampl... of
<br />_ type of ln1ont1S1t1on needed. Include:
<br />'1, Hydrologic data such as ralnfall and
<br />,runoll cI1a.racterlstlal, frequencl... of
<br />hlgh ,and low f10WB, avallabll1ty of
<br />groundwa.ter, natu:ml lakes, marshes,
<br />_ estuaries;
<br />2. W&tet quaJity cl8IIa, Including dts-
<br />IOOIved oxygen temperature, turbldM;y,
<br />and minerallzaitlon;
<br />3. Geology and topography of the
<br />planning area;
<br />4. L8n<I capoblIJty and we classlflca-
<br />t1008;
<br />5. ArcheologlcaJ, h1BtorIooJ, cultural,
<br />8CenIc, ot' unique a:reos; (
<br />6. BiologlooJ resotIl"CE!6; _
<br />7. CUrren. and planned water UBeS,
<br />BaBed .." an analysIll of tile Inven-
<br />by, the nem step reQU1ies tbait aD. ap-
<br />praisal be made of the capabllJty of the
<br />~ to suppoI"t; further use far the
<br />~ needs, ThIs would provlde
<br />gaIdaDce as to the pooslble scope and
<br />magnitudo of plans to meet _ needs
<br />far eoch coonpanent. ThIs appral8a!
<br />,would require Ideol.lflcatlon of poosIbIl1-
<br />_ for _ont, development, and
<br />_ owortunItles far acl:I.." such as;
<br />L'Reservolr sites cataloged as to
<br />poosIble ranges of storage capacities;
<br />2. Preservation of scenic streams;
<br />3. stream channel' Improvement
<br />possIbWtles;
<br />4. Land treatment and enhancement
<br />measures;
<br />5. Preservation or enhancement 01
<br />fish and wildlife; and
<br />6. Preservation or enhancement of a
<br />eultural or archeolo~ca1 area.
<br />'I1:tese' possJbUlt1es for management,
<br />development, or other aetloIl8 will indi-
<br />ea.te the resources capabllltles relative
<br />'In specIflc commodIties, services. or en-
<br />'f1ronmentaJ. amenities desired by 80-
<br />.d.ety. By proper selection of these de-
<br />velopment posslbll1tles, plans ma.y be
<br />formulated to meet the needs for each
<br />component of the objectives.
<br />( Problems Ilkely to present impedi-
<br />ments to the attainment of the desired
<br />levels of national or reg1-onaJ. output o!
<br />goods and services, environmental
<br />amen1tIes. or soc1al opportWl1t1es for the
<br />planning period should be ldent1fled
<br />Problems may take the form of physical
<br />c:onstratnt8 that l1mIt resource use. con-
<br />filets In resource we, legislation that In-
<br />
<br />NOTICES
<br />
<br />Wbits desired use or development,
<br />.other limitations.
<br />, At thJa point, It should be po.ssible to
<br />genera.ll.y outline the total development
<br />and resource use programs that are
<br />needed to meet current and projected
<br />needs for each component of the multl-
<br />objectives. An examination of these po-
<br />tential programs may reveal cantl1cts
<br />and complementaritles among them. In
<br />addition, other .programs may also be
<br />ava.1lable. These may include such alter-
<br />natJves as changes In production proc-
<br />cesses for lncreased emclency. meeting
<br />, needs by shifting demand to other a.reas,
<br />or encouraging more rapld rates of
<br />technological progress.
<br />
<br />D. FORMULATION OF ALTERNATIVE PLANS
<br />
<br />In the first two steps In the plan for-
<br />mulation process, the components of the
<br />multlobjectives were speclfled In terms
<br />of needs and problems. the resource
<br />capablllty withln the planning areas
<br />were evaluated, and the broad outlines
<br />of management, development, and
<br />other actions were IdentJned. The next
<br />step Is to undertake the actual-. design
<br />and scaling of alternative plans.
<br />ldea.lly, in the presence of a situation
<br />.where there are few or no constraints
<br />on pla.nn1ng and where the components
<br />of the multlobJectives are essentially
<br />complementary (the satisfaction of one
<br />component Deed. does DOt preclude the
<br />sat1sfact1on ot the. other component
<br />needs). the formulation of 8 single plan
<br />would be su1IIclent, The only test required
<br />would be that the plan. was the most
<br />eMc1ent plan to satisfy the specifled level
<br />of component needs. Although in only a
<br />few instances will ~ s1tua.tion occur.
<br />. the case does help to establish the guide-
<br />lines and criteria to judge the range
<br />of alternative pions that mould be for-
<br />mulated and the tests to be applled In
<br />formulating any given plan. .
<br />The requirement for the formulation
<br />of alternative plans in the presence of
<br />multlobJectlves derives from the basic
<br />characteristics of the multlobJectlve
<br />approach. FIrst, InBtead of the com-
<br />ponent needs of all objectives being
<br />complementary, it 18 more l1kely they
<br />will be In conflict-the satisfaction of
<br />one wUl reduce the satisfaction of others.
<br />Second, given tnlcertalnty with respect
<br />to . future economic and demographic
<br />changes and the general uncerta1nty with
<br />respect 10 future preferences for the
<br />environmental quallty objective, a single
<br />speclfled level of e.chlevement or need
<br />satisfaction for any given component is
<br />not Ilkely to be acceptable through time,
<br />Other factors contributing to the neces-
<br />sity for formulation ot alternative plans
<br />Include l1m1ted resources, technical
<br />planning constraints. and legal and ad-
<br />mlnLstratlve constraints.
<br />Suggestions as to the determination of
<br />the general nature and types of alter-
<br />native plans which should be formulated
<br />and the number of alternatives which
<br />should be developed, within each general
<br />'type are given below.
<br />A tlrst requirement Is to determlne tho
<br />general types of alternatives to be devel-
<br />oped under alternative assumptions con-
<br />cerning the level and magnitude of com-
<br />ponent needs in the future. Given alter-
<br />
<br />---
<br />
<br />, 24171
<br />
<br />or \ native assumptions concerning future
<br />economic and demographic trends for
<br />t:.b.e planning setting and the total range
<br />of component needs related thereto, a
<br />Set of. alternative planS should be pre-
<br />pared for each major assumption con-
<br />cerning the future. In those planning
<br />situations where there does .not exist a.
<br />strong linkage between water and land
<br />development e.n.d major shifts in eco-
<br />nomic and demographic trends, the
<br />OBERS baseline projections will gener-
<br />ally be used as a single set of a.sswnp-
<br />tions about the future level ot compo-
<br />nent needs required. Where the linkage
<br />Is suffiCiently strong so that water and
<br />land development may materially alter
<br />future economic or demographic trends,
<br />this relation should be reflected 1n alter-
<br />native assumptions. Where the planning
<br />area may be unusually susceptible to
<br />'other factors that could ea.sUy change In
<br />the future, It will be appropriate to estab-
<br />lish a ba.s1s for a different set of alter-
<br />native plans based. on alternative as-
<br />sumptions concerning future change. In
<br />thJa lnstance, a sensitivity check should
<br />be made to ascertain the extent to which
<br />component needs will vary slgn1ficantly
<br />given d11ferent, assumptions concerning
<br />the future. If no slgn1flcant variation Is
<br />t01.md., only one set of alternative plans
<br />Win have to be developed..
<br />Within a given set of assumptions con-
<br />cerning future change and the compo-
<br />nent needs associated thereto, the num-
<br />ber and types of alternative plans to be .
<br />developed will be determlned by applying
<br />the fOllowing;
<br />1. OD. a first BPprox..imation basis.
<br />army component needs. that a.re essen-
<br />t1811y complementary-that IB, the satis-
<br />faction of one of these component needs
<br />does not preclUde satisfaction of the
<br />other component needs or does not result
<br />In materla11y adding to the cost of satis-
<br />fying the other component needs In the
<br />array; s.nd
<br />2. F!-om the above apprOximation. it
<br />ahould be posstble to group component
<br />needs and the elements of a plan to
<br />satisfy those needs that a.re essentiallY
<br />:In harmOny. each set representing the
<br />nucleus for an alternative plan.
<br />r At this BteP~ relevant aJtematlve means
<br />of meetJng each of the component needs
<br />to be Included. In an alternative plan
<br />should be identifled. All relevant means
<br />should be considered, An analysis should
<br />be made for each alternative means, in-
<br />cluding an identiflcation of the beneficial
<br />and adverse consequences to other com-
<br />ponent needs. The assembly of informa-
<br />tion on alternative means of meeting the
<br />component needs will provide a basis for
<br />selecting the most effective means, or
<br />combina.tion of means. of sartJ..sfying all
<br />component needs. The significance of this
<br />step is threefold: (1) It provides infor-
<br />mation on the effectiveness of alterna-
<br />tive means of satisfying a component
<br />need; (2) it prOvides information on the
<br />extent of complementarity or confUct
<br />among component needs in relation to
<br />8 particular means; and (3) It provides
<br />B basis for selecting alternative meana
<br />for satisfying a component need In tho
<br />formulation of an alternative plan.
<br />At this point, It should be lX>IlSIble to
<br />formulate alternative plans bull' upon
<br />
<br />. _ - ------- - - .FEDERAL_ REGlSTER, -VOL.- 36,-NO~24S-JUESDAY, DECEMBER-21,- 1971 __ __
<br />
|