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<br />24164
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<br />NOTICES
<br />
<br />a signlfloant effect in promoting greater
<br />diversity; the following information
<br />should be shown In pllLI1D1ng report.<;: (1)
<br />A statistica.l description of the area's cur-
<br />rent economic base, h1gjilighting the em-
<br />ployment concentratioI18 which are of
<br />concern; (2) projections of future em-
<br />ployment both with and without the
<br />plan; and (3) the percentage reduction
<br />in the area's expected dependence on its
<br />specialized type of employment. with as.
<br />compared to without the water plan. The
<br />latter statistic will be shown in tabular
<br />displaYS of plan benefits.
<br />Beneficial effects to this component in~
<br />elude contributions to (1). balanced loCal
<br />and regional economies; (2) regularizing
<br />market activity and employment fluctua-
<br />tions: (3) offsetting effects of climatic
<br />vagaries and acoompanyinS- uncertainty;
<br />and (4) reversal in decline of community
<br />growth.
<br />These beneficial effects may be meas-
<br />ured or described in a variety of ways,
<br />with primary emphasis on comparative
<br />indices relating to fluctuations in output,
<br />employment, a.nd prices.
<br />Conversely, a.dverse effects are identi-
<br />fled and measured or described B6 nega-
<br />.t1ve effects on economic stabllity.
<br />5. Educational. cultural. and recrea-
<br />tional opportunities. Beneficial effects to
<br />this component include contributions to
<br />" (1) improved opporttmities for commu-
<br />nity services such as utilities, transpor-
<br />tation, schools, and hospitals; and (2)
<br />more cultural and recreational oppor-
<br />ttm.1ties sucb as historic and scient1:fic
<br />sites, lakes and reservoirs, and recreation
<br />areas.
<br />Beneficial effects to improved oom-
<br />mrmtty servtces may be described 1n ap-
<br />propriate quantitative and qualitative
<br />terms, while Increased cultural and rec-
<br />reational opportunities will be .set forth
<br />as the nmnerical increase in the relevant
<br />facilities, otherwise accounting tor size,
<br />use potentlal, aild quaUty. "
<br />Conversely, adverse effects are identi-
<br />fied and measured or described as detri-
<br />mental ef!eots on educational, cultural,
<br />and recreM10nal opportuniUes.
<br />6. EnviTonmental conditi01lS of special
<br />regional concern. Where their impact is
<br />likely to have special reference to a re-
<br />gion's perception ot its future develop-
<br />ment needs, the special concern of a re-
<br />gion toward particular elements of the
<br />overall environmental quality objective
<br />may be given expression throu~h specific
<br />incorporation in the regional develop-
<br />ment objective.
<br />.M discussed above, beneflclal effects
<br />toward improving, preserving, or achiev-
<br />ing one or more of the diverse and varied
<br />"components of the environmental quality
<br />objective are identified and measured in
<br />a variety of physical dimensions, or
<br />otherwise qualitatively descrtbed. When
<br />such benefits are applicable to the re-
<br />gional development objective, they will
<br />be measured and evaluated in a manner
<br />oonsistent with that followed in the above
<br />referenced section.
<br />
<br />'and economic progress, the evidence ot
<br />recent yea"rs suggests--at least tor some
<br />areas-that the increasing soelal and
<br />economic costs attendant on attalnment
<br />of high population densities in cities a.nd
<br />suburbs are becoming unduly burden-
<br />some. The Nation is thus confronted
<br />with the task of channeling economic
<br />growth 1n new d.1.rections, while s1gn1ft-
<br />cantly reducing socIal and economic
<br />" costs.
<br />Maintaining the rural population base
<br />while draWIng some people back into out-
<br />lying area.s with more opportunities for
<br />employment, recreation, more and better
<br />living space, and an amenable social
<br />environment respresents a responsive ap-
<br />proach toward redirecting geographic
<br />distribution of the population whlle pro-
<br />viding for economic growth and develop-
<br />ment.
<br />Public Investment programS, especIally
<br />those embracing plans for water and land
<br />development and use, contribute toward
<br />tills component of the regional develop-
<br />ment objective by providing the water
<br />and land supplies-in both Quantity and
<br />qual1ty-wh1ch are an essential prerequi.-
<br />EiIte to creating new settlement opportu-
<br />mties or expanding upon existing rural
<br />developments and by assisting in the
<br />provision of better social services and
<br />1mproved cultural OPlX>rtunities at re-
<br />duced community costs. .
<br />These beneficial effects will occur when
<br />populations of affected pla.nn1ng aree.l!l
<br />are stabll1zed or otherwise increased
<br />through tn-migrations resulting from
<br />implementation of a plan.
<br />BeneflclaJ. effects to this component
<br />can be measured as the improvement or
<br />increase in population and related em-
<br />ployment toward atta.inment of spec1-
<br />:!led distributional goals,
<br />COnversely, adverse effects a.re identl.-
<br />fled and measured as inc.reases In the
<br />" concentrstion of population a.nd er:nploy-
<br />ment contrary to specUled objectives.
<br />4. Regional economic base and stabil-
<br />Ity. The economic base of a region con-
<br />6ists of those activities which provide the
<br />basic employment and income on which
<br />the rest of the regional economy depends.
<br />For some regions the mix of the exist-
<br />Ing economic base may be .too narrow
<br />and specialiZed, thus restricting the re-
<br />gion's development potential.. Over an
<br />extended period such a region 18 likely
<br />to be subject to extemdve cycJIcellnsta-
<br />b1lity with attendant adverse economic
<br />and. social. consequences. When a region
<br />wishes to offset the likelihood of such
<br />c,ycllcallnst&blllty over the long run, dI-
<br />versincation of the economic base may be
<br />specified as a development objective.
<br />Water and land resource plans con-
<br />tribute to this regional objective when
<br />they provide needed inputs-particularly
<br />water supply, power, and transporta-
<br />tion-that contribute to or a.ss1Bt In cre-
<br />ating the essential conditions that enable
<br />an improvement in the industrial. mix
<br />over Ume leading to a broader prOduction
<br />base by which the region can provide a
<br />larger portion of the Nation's outputs ot
<br />goods and services. 1'. EFFECTS ON SOCIAL FACTORS
<br />When the region under study has too In addition to their effects on the three
<br />great a concentration or specialization in objectives described above, most water
<br />its economic base and the water and land. and land resource plans have beneficial
<br />resource plan being evaluated would have and adverse effects on social factors.
<br />
<br />These effects reflect a higbly complex set
<br />of relat1onsh1ps and interactions between
<br />inputs and outputs of a plan and the
<br />social and cul tural setting in which these
<br />are received and acted upon. These effects
<br />will be tully reported in the system of
<br />accOWlts for each alternative plan.
<br />With emphasis on their incidence or
<br />occUrrence, beneficial meial effects are
<br />contributions to the eQ'ditable distribu-
<br />tion of real income and employment and
<br />to other social opportuni,ties. Since they
<br />are integrally related to the basic values
<br />and goals of society, these effects are
<br />usually not subject to monetary evalua-
<br />tion. The normal market exchange proc-
<br />"ess, however, prodUCes monetary values
<br />" which can be utilized to aid in m/"'n.suring
<br />the" distributional impacts of plans on
<br />real income.
<br />Adverse social effects ot a- plan have
<br />detrimentai impacts on the equitable dis-
<br />tribution ot realtncome and employment
<br />or otherwise dim:in1sh or detract from the
<br />attainment of other social opportunitles.
<br />Addirtlonally, such adverse effects include
<br />not only those incurred In the designated
<br />planning a.rea, but also include adverse
<br />consequences elsewhere in the Nation re. .
<br />suIting from implementation of the plan.
<br />1. "~MeasuTeme7zt standards. Criteria
<br />used to evaluate or describe the bene-
<br />ficial or adverse effects of a plan will
<br />vary with the relevant social factor under
<br />consideration. Where appraisal of such
<br />diverse social and economic characteris-
<br />tics as income distribution, health, and
<br />safety conditions, and so fortb.,ls relevnnt
<br />to a proper evaluation of a plan, the
<br />measurement standards to be applied
<br />must necessarily be broad and variable.
<br />Measures used to describe socIal effects
<br />may be expressed in dollars, other quan- "
<br />titattve WIlts, and QualitaUve terms.
<br />2. With. and without analysis. ExIsting
<br />conditions encompaSsed by the relevant
<br />socJal factors will be described and pre-
<br />sented in terms that best characterize
<br />the planning perceptions and social set-
<br />ting of the affected area in the situation ..
<br />without the plan. Planners will also pre~
<br />pare similar descriptions for future so.
<br />cial conditions to be exPected with and
<br />without the plan throughout the period
<br />of analysis. The situation existing before
<br />the initiation of planning will provide
<br />the dfta from which to evalU8.te s1gni1l-
<br />cant social effects under alternative
<br />plans.
<br />3. Limitations.. In evaluating social ef-
<br />fects the obtaining of detalled break-
<br />downs and analytically useful correla-
<br />tions relating to various indicators, index
<br />numbers, and simllar comparative sta.-
<br />tistical indicators, as well as dollar values
<br />where possible, pr~ents many complex
<br />definitional, data, and measurement
<br />problems. Consequently, planning studies
<br />should. exPlicitly recognize the limita-
<br />tions ot present methods and exPlore in~
<br />novatlve approaches to the identification
<br />and measurement of the social effects.
<br />Such procedures should be carefully
<br />documented in the report.
<br />4. Classes of social effects. 'Social er~
<br />fects of a plan are more clearly nnder-
<br />stood and their significance interpreted
<br />by evaluating them as separable classes
<br />of social effects. Whl1e these ,are stated
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<br />FEDERAL REGISTt:II, VOL. 36, NO_ 245-TUESDAY, DECEMBER 21, 1971
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