Laserfiche WebLink
<br />o <br />.-) <br />.... <br />~ ::) <br />ti1 <br />f~ <br /> <br />The OBE June 1969 projections of population and employment for the <br />Region were substantially lower than the OBE-ERS projections, particular- <br />ly in the Lower Main Stem Subregion. The reduction in projected region- <br />al population was 5.6 percent in 1980, 12.0 percent in 2000, and 23.4 <br />percent in 2020. Similar relative reductions were made in projected tot- <br />al employment. However, there was considerable variation by industry, <br />changes in direct and indirect employment ranging from a regional reduc- <br />tion of 48 percent in manufacturing to a regional increase of 26 percent <br />for mining employment. The result was that projected final demand of the <br />Region was reduced 10 percent in 1980, 19 percent in 2000, and 31 percent <br />in 2020. Projections of value added in the Region were reduced by simi- <br />lar proportions. The reduction in projected total water requirements <br />ranged from 7.5 percent in 1980 to nearly 21 percent in 2020, and those <br />for irrigated cropland harvested from 7 percent in 1980 to 16 percent in <br />2020. <br /> <br />Several additional socio-economic analyses to extend and supplement <br />thosein~luded in this study would be beneficial in development of plans <br />for the Region. Conventional "water requirements" methodology--matching <br />of regional water demands and water supplies--is inadequate for water <br />resources planning as it represents a "single-valued" solution to a com- <br />plex investment decision process. Economic impacts of alternative region- <br />al framework plans should be included at all steps in the plan formula- <br />tion process as they may concern study assumptions, alternative economic <br />structures, alternative levels of water availability, technologies, sing- <br />le plan functions, or interregional shifts in agricultural production. . <br /> <br />It is recommended that a permanent Economics Work Group or subcom- <br />mittee of the Pacific Southwest Interagency Committee be established to <br />facilitate continuation of interagency cooperation in these studies, to- <br />gether with periodic review, assessment, and updating of completed studies. <br />The large measure of uncertainty involved in water resource planning <br />serves to emphasize this recommendation. <br /> <br />xi <br /> <br />