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<br /> <br />c> <br /> <br />.- <br /> <br />~ <br />Q <br /> <br />i <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br /> <br />The modified OBE-ERS projections for livestock reflect two primary <br />changes in the OBE-ERS projections; a reduction of about 25 percent in <br />the number of cattle marketed from finishing feedlots and an increase of <br />about 90 percent in the projections for milk cows by 2020. Table 1.2. <br /> <br />The modified OBE-ERS projections were compared with the OBE-ERS pro- <br />jections in terms of water and related land requirements and the effect <br />on people as indicated by employment, value added and final demand. The <br />amount of water required by the modified OBE-ERS projections, was greater <br />in all subregions and projection years than the. OBE-ERS requirements ex- <br />cept for 1980 in the Gila Subregion, where it is. about the same. In the <br />Lower Main Stem Subregion the relative .increases in employment, value <br />added,~nd final demand were 2 to 8 times as large as the relative in- <br />crease in water required. In the Little Colorado Subregion the relative <br />increases in employment, value added, and final demand were about half <br />the relative increase ,in water required in 1980. The analysis indicates <br />some improvement is expected by 2020, but the relative increase in final <br />demand still is somewhat below the .relativeincrease in water required. <br />In the Gila Subregion the relative increases in employment, value added <br />and final demand were less than half the relative increase in water re- <br />quired in 2000 and 2020. <br /> <br />An input-output analysis was made of the economy of each of the <br />subregions in the base year and in each of the target years to show the <br />direct and indirect value added (defined ;in the Glossary) and the direc.t <br />and indi,rect requirements for water, cropland harvested, and labor per <br />$1,000 of final demand (defined in the Glossary) for products of each <br />sector. These relationships are referred to as "factors" in this appen- <br />dix. Using these factors, tabulations were prepared to show.the relation- <br />ships for the economy of each subregion. As is generally recognized, <br />value added related to total water directly and indirectly used varies <br />greatly from sector to sector,. the ratio being relatively high for most <br />nonagricultural sectors and relatively low for the agricultural sectors. <br />The relationships are similar with final demand and labor related to <br />water used directly and indirectly. A major part of the Region's water <br />is used directly and indirectly by the food and kindred products, eat- <br />ing and drinking places, and agricultural sectors to produce a relatively <br />small amount of value to the Region's economy. <br /> <br />Significant changes are projected to take place in water use with- <br />in the Region. The proportion of the Region's water used directly and <br />indirectly by the nonagricultural sectors is projected to increase sharp- <br />ly throughout the projection time frame. Conversely, the proPortion used <br />directly and indirectly by the agricultural sectors is projected to de- <br />cline. <br /> <br />Value added to the economy per acre foot of water used by the pro- <br />ducing sectors as a group is projected to increase about 10 times from <br />1965 to 2020 in the Lower Main Stem and Gila Subregions, and about 3.6 <br /> <br />ix <br />