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<br />, ., <br /> <br />003349 <br />Where Should the Proll;ram Go From Here? <br /> <br />The water outlook varies significantly across Colorado. Soil <br /> <br />Conservation Service forecasts as of 1 February (when about 60% of <br /> <br />the snow accumulation season has already occurred) was for streamflow <br /> <br />to vary from 30-40% greater than normal in the northwestern part of <br /> <br />the state to 35% below normal in the Rio Grande watershed of southern <br /> <br />Colorado. This assumes near normal snowpack accumulation during the <br /> <br />remainder of the season. Forecasts for other watersheds were in the <br /> <br />intermediate range between these two extremes: 30% above normal for <br /> <br />the northern Front Range, slightly above normal for the Arl~nsas River, <br /> <br />15% below normal in the San Juans, 20% above normal in the Animas and <br /> <br />Dolores, 10-20% above normal for the Gunnison, and 15-30% above normal <br /> <br />for the upper Colorado. These outlooks are encouraging after last <br /> <br />year and snowfall has probably been about normal in most areas during <br /> <br />February. <br /> <br />Lower elevation precipitation, however, has not generally been <br /> <br />comparable to that received in the mountains. This detracts from the <br /> <br />state water picture. <br /> <br />West of the continental divide accumulated <br /> <br />precipitation at lower elevations is only near to somewhat above normal. <br /> <br />The accumulated precipitation at lower elevations east of the mountains <br /> <br />continues well below the normal trend for this water year. Soils are <br /> <br />very dry in many areas of the state and reservoirs and underground <br /> <br />water supplies are depleted. The Colorado Big Thompson, for example, is <br /> <br />presently holding 37% of the average carryover storage. Mr. Robert <br /> <br />Smith from the NCWCD estimates that it would take four consecutive <br /> <br />years with streamflow of 22% above normal (as is presently being fore- <br /> <br />cast for this season) to bring storage back to the normal level. This <br /> <br />is an unlikely occurrence since streamflow of 22% of normal or greater <br /> <br />'has occurred a total of six times in the past 20 years. Underground <br /> <br />4 <br />