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<br />, <br /> <br />q <br /> <br />003355 <br /> <br />How Will the Assessment of the Results be Made? <br /> <br /> <br />The changes expected from weather modification are modest (10-20%) <br /> <br /> <br />in terms of the large natural variations in snowfall (200-400%). To detect <br /> <br />these changes with high confidence, very refined experiments incorporating <br /> <br />randomization and/or very extended periods of experience are required. <br /> <br /> <br />It is not likely that one will be able to make aDRlyses of just the <br /> <br /> <br />1977-78 winter seeding alone that will provide an unequivical answer <br /> <br /> <br />to the changes in precipitation and streamflow from an application type <br /> <br /> <br />program such as the one in progress this winter. It should be possible, <br /> <br />however, to do an assessment that can provide important important insight <br /> <br />into the results of the program. These analyses should also provide <br /> <br />important information on the additional duration of application programs <br /> <br />that would be required to make the results statistically significant <br />and should provide information that could be used to delineate problem <br /> <br />areas in the operations. <br /> <br />Special analysis techniques that have been and are being developed <br /> <br />at CSU will be used in an effort to provide meaningful analyses despite <br />these complexities. The analyses will address questions related to <br /> <br />changes in both precipitation and streamflow and to the consistency of <br /> <br />indicated changes with physical concepts. <br /> <br />10 <br />