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WSPC07505
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Last modified
1/26/2010 12:11:22 PM
Creation date
10/9/2006 6:30:48 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Water Supply Protection
File Number
8040.950
Description
Section D General Studies - General Water Studies
State
CO
Basin
Statewide
Date
4/30/1982
Title
High Plains Study - Six-State High Plains Study Recommendations - With Response
Water Supply Pro - Doc Type
Report/Study
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<br />000439 <br /> <br />KIWl~W \';Ul"l <br />SUBJECT TO REVISION <br /> <br />which would affect water use. In the Baseline Case, it was estimated that technology <br />and management would reduce the average quantity of water use per acre from 1.38 <br />acre-feet in 1977 to 0.68 acre-feet in 1<J90, and 0.65 acre-feet in 2020. If you assume <br />that the adoption rate of technology and management to improve water use efficiency <br />would be only one-half .as effective, the average quantity of water used per acre would <br />be reduced from 1.38 acre-feet in 1977 to 1.03 acre-feet in 2000, and 1.01 acre-feet <br />in 2020. Adopting the technology and management practices to improve water efficiency <br />can result in a vast difference in the number of irrigated acres in the Texas High <br />Plains in 2020. For example, adoption of such techniques at one-half the rate of the <br />Baseline Case results ina loss of two-thirds of irrigated acreage as opposed to a 20 <br />percent loss if all available technology and management practices are adopted. Under <br />the Alternative Baseline Case the quantity of water needed to maintain irrigated <br />acreage in the Texas High Plains in the year 2020 would be 5.25 times as much annually <br />as the 808,140 estimated for the Baseline Case. <br /> <br />Crop Yields <br /> <br />Yields of the major High Plains crops are expected to increase but at a slower <br />rate than historically since 1946, when dramatic productivity improvements began. <br />However, if yield increases were to be less than the projected levels, there would be <br />an increase in national crop prices because of lower production. <br /> <br />Farm Commodity ExPort Demand and Crop Prices <br /> <br />. In the future, domestic demand for crops is projected to grow at a moderate <br />rate," due to slower population, economic and real per capita income growth than in <br />former years. Export demand for crops is projected to show strong growth due to a <br />growing world economy, continued agricultural shortages in several industrialized nations, <br />and a U.S. policy encouraging agricultural exports. <br /> <br />Droull:ht <br /> <br />The projections made in this study are based upon the assumption that precipitation <br />in the study area will continue on a yeaJ-to-year basis at the historic average. In <br />order to test the sensitivity of the projections to drought conditions, computations <br />were made for selected projection variables for the year of the last 10 in each <br />respective area during which precipitation in the area was the lowest. Yields for this <br />"worst year" case were 25 percent lower for dryland wheat, grain sorghums, and cotton <br />than the yields used in the Baseline Case. Yields of irrigated lands were less than <br />yields used in the Baseline Case by seven percent for corn, 16 percent for grain <br />sorghums, and 25 percent for cotton. As a result, value added by farm production in <br />the northern subarea would be 10 percent below that of the Baseline Case, and 16 to <br />18 percent less in the southern subarea. <br />The estimated drought year gains from water imports affect the entire economy <br />in a significant way. For example, by 2020, water imports would shift a drought year <br />economic loss of two percent below the Baseline Case into a gain of 2.8 percent, <br /> <br />-13- <br />
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