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<br />~! ;L14 3 8 <br /> <br />REVIEW COpy, <br />SUBJECT TO REVISION <br /> <br />cotton-accounted fol' 94 percent of crop production value in the region. Between <br />1977 and 2020, cotton increases in importance in the South, while in Nebraska, corn <br />remains the highest valued crop and dominates the value of crop production. Wheat, <br />the region's most dependable dryland crop, remains important in all states except New <br />Mexico. The feed grains (primarily corn and grain sorghums) account for over 55 <br />percent of regional production value for the Baseline Case and are vital to the regional <br />economy's feedlots and meat processors. Cotton, the fiber and oil crop, accounts for <br />about 20 pel'cent of l'egional total value of Cl'Op pl'oduction and is vital to the West <br />Texas economy, its textiles, seed-oil and seed-meal processors. <br /> <br />Public Research. Consel'vation and Education Allencies <br /> <br />In order to increase watel' use efficiency through both technical and management <br />methods, a combination of public and private progl'ams al'e needed. In each of the <br />six states, the State University System and Agricultural Extension Service, in cooperation <br />with federal and state .agencies, conduct research and demonstration in agl'onomy, <br />irrigation and agricultural production methods, crop breeding, livestock husbandry, and <br />horticulture, cal'ry out educational pl'ogl'ams, and provide technical assistance and <br />service to fal'mers. Within Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas, local districts <br />(ground water management, natural resources, and water conservation) have authority <br />to provide technical assistance. In New Mexico, the Natural Resources Depal'tment <br />administers a number of agencies whose authol'ities and responsibilities are oriented in <br />a manner similial' to local water consel'vation distl'icts in the othel' states. Oklahoma <br />has an independent agency, the Oklahoma Conservation Commission, which supports <br />local districts that assist farmers. <br />Agencies and institutions ol'iented toward improving water use efficiency through <br />research and education al'e generally in existence within the area. It is emphasized <br />that continued funding and operation of existing institutions is vital to achieving useful <br />goals of improved water use efficiency and water conservation. In some cases, pUblic <br />sector programs should be expanded, and in other cases redirection and improved <br />program management are needed. <br /> <br />Factors affectinll the Projections <br /> <br />Long-term projections, such as are made in the High Plains Study, require <br />qualification and explanation. Sensitivity analyses can indicate how projections vary <br />with somewhat different assumptions about future trends. Important factors which <br />seem most vulnerable to long-term variability are identified and discussed below. <br /> <br />Water Use <br /> <br />Where the Aquifer is thinnest, as in Texas, projections of il'l'igated acreage towards <br />the end of the study pel'iod are extremely sensitive to the rate at which water use <br />efficiency improves. A separate analysis was made by the Texas researchers which <br />shows the effects of irrigation efficiency improvements upon irrigated acreage in the <br />Texas High Plains between 1977 and 2020 and the difference in the quantities of water <br />that would have to be imported to maintain irrigated acreage at the 1977 level. The <br />results of this alternative analysis are presented below. <br />The Baseline Case in Texas represents a projection of the agricultural economy <br />of the Texas High Plains under the assumption that there will be no changes in laws <br /> <br />-12- <br /> <br />, <br />