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GJJ71'l Methods and Assumptions (1) Denver Reqional Council of Governments. The pop- ulation estimate prepared by the Denver Regional Council of Governments was begun 1n 1968-1969 when the DRCOG cooperated with the Denver Board of Water Commissioners in reviewing Denver area water needs. Since that time (and subsequent to the 1970 decennial census of the United 5tates) the DRCOG hJS revised its population figures. The most current available DRCOG population projection is presented in its "1971 Annual Report". The DRCOG estimates are prepared for the Denver Stand- ard Metropolitan Statistical area lSMSA), which consists of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, and Jefferson Counties. In- migration presently accounts for more than one-half of the overall population growth of the Denver area (62% of total population increase between 1970 and 1972). The Council of Governments explains this high level of in-migration by point- ing to the area's favorable economic performance relative to the rest of the nation and to the physical attractiveness of the region. This rate of in-migration is expected to remain constant or to increase slightly in the next thirty years. The Denver SMSA has experienced a sustained rate of natural increase in the face of nationally declining birth rates. The DRCOG proposes a dual explanation for this pheno- menon. First, in-migration brings a proportionately large number of young families into the area as well as large num- bers of young persons who can be expected to form families soon after coming into the area. Second, the Denver area death rate is declining at a rate faster than the declining national death rate. Thus the Denver area rate of natural increase is above the national levels. The 1969 rate of nat- ural increase (an annual increment of 1.05%) is expected to hold in the 1970-2000 period. (2) Denver Board of Water Commissioners. Between 1968 and 1969, the Denver Board of Water Commissioners cooperated with the Denver Regional Council of Governments in preparing the population forecast mentioned above. It dealt with pro- jections through the year 2011 for that area of Metropolitan Denver which could reasonably be expected to use Denver water services in the next forty years. The area under considera- tion extends north from Denver to Broomfield and south to Castle Rock, but does not include those areas, such as Aurora and Englewood, in which city governments provide water ser- vices and can be expected to continue to do so. The Denver Water Board population projections have not been revised sub- sequent to the 1970 decennial census nor have they been up- dated to conform to subsequent DRCOG revisions. The Denver -2-