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<br />000181 <br /> <br />E. Evaluation and Reports <br /> <br />The evaluation of CREST will concentrate in three areas: technical, <br />environmental/social, and economic. Specific evaluation programs will be <br />established in each area and continued throughout the entire 8-year <br />period. Detailed studies will be conducted annually and the results will <br />be used to document the progress of CREST. This will serve as a basis for <br />an annual progress report which will summarize program activities and <br />accomplishments. Within 12 months of the completion of seeding activities <br />a comprehensive evaluation will be made and a final report prepared. This <br />report will contain a recommendation as to whether or not operational <br />cloud seeding should be undertaken in the Basin. If the recommendation is <br />to establish an operational program, an implementation plan will be <br />included. <br /> <br />lhe primary technical evaluation of the CREST Program will concentrate <br />on documenting the amount of water actually produced by cloud seeding. <br />This will be accomplished by employing statistical analysis techniques <br />to determine the amount of augmented precipitation. Conventional <br />precipitation-runoff relationships and watershed models will then be used <br />to convert the precipitation increment into the additional water produced. <br />In addition, an evaluation of the chain of physical events will provide <br />confidence that the increases in precipitation and streamflow are due to <br />seeding. Finally, a secondary evaluation will also be made using seasonal <br />streamflow data directly. <br /> <br />The acceptance of cloud seeding as a water resource management tool <br />increases directly in relation to the reduction of uncertainties associ- <br />ated with the technology. Planned evaluation of the effects of cloud <br />seeding on the environment and the people of the Colorado River Basin is <br />one way of reducing these uncertainties. This evaluation will be a <br />long-term effort extending over the duration of the demonstration program, <br />and will include the impact of any extra-area effects, and ongoing public <br />involvement process will ensure public review and response to study data. <br />The final report will contain a comprehensive assessment of the environ- <br />mental and social studies and will serve as an important factor in any <br />decision to implement Basin-wide operations. <br /> <br />The potential economic benefits from cloud seeding are substantial. To <br />document this potential, an economic evaluation program will be conducted. <br />It will utilize the technical evaluation to establish the benefits from <br />the demonstration program, and more accurately project benefits from a <br />full basin operational program. The benefits resulting from the addi- <br />tional water production will be assessed along with those from hydroelec- <br />tric power generation and salinity reduction. A primary tool in this <br />evaluation will be Reclamation's Colorado River Simulation System Model, <br />which will allow for Basin-wide verification and projection of results. <br />Demonstration program benefits in conjunction with improved cost estimates <br />will enable refined benefit/cost analyses to be made. <br /> <br />40 <br />