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" > - ~~ OOJ2u7 9 .- and agricultural management practices, technological advances, in both fixed and variable costs and their interrelationships, and to trends in dry land and irrigated yields, production, and farm prices, and their variability. Historical cost-price relationships must also be analyzed as input to projection of cost-price relationships to be proposed in Study Element B-1. Following the development, refinement, and testing of the agricultural simulation or linear programming models, the third phase of this element will include use of these models to project baseline and alternative time profiles of agricultural crop and livestock production and their values, of input costs and agricultural emloyment and income, etc., under different assumptions of public policies, of water and energy availability and costs, of agricultural including irrigation management practices, and of introduction of new technology. It is anticipated that these models will be used to project time profiles only for High Plains areas of each state. Since there are significant protions of each state outside the High Plains, and since these portions have the capability of additional agricultural production and conversion to irrigated agriculture, the states will in the final phase of this study element consider shifts or changes in the agricultural output and employment and income for the balance of each state in cooperation with the General Contractor assessments in Study Element B-2. Element tasks will include: A-l.l Review crop budgets for different years and different parts of the High Plains A-l.2 Evaluate previously developed agricultural simulation and linear programming models A-l.3 Develop, with the General Contractor, consistent interstate assumptions of cost~price relationships for different crops and livestock A-l.4 Develop, with the General Contractor, consistent interstate assumptions of projected fixed and variable cost components--providing for variation in energy and water costs and constraints A-l.5 Develop, with the General Contractor, consistent interstate assumptions of public policies, yield trends, and variability for crop and livestock production A-l.6 Develop consistent model structures among the states A-l.7 Assemble and verify baseline data on agricultural and irrigation management practices, yields, agricultural output, employment and income, fixed or variable costs, etc.