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<br />~. <br /> <br />~.. <br /> <br />OOI)2u6 <br /> <br />8 <br /> <br />ELEMENT DESCRIPTION <br /> <br />lO NUMBER: <br />TITLE: <br />PURPOSE: <br /> <br />A-l <br /> <br />State Agricultural and Farm-Level Research <br /> <br />To project a time profile of cropping patterns, <br />agricultural output, output values, input costs <br />and employment, and income for each of the six <br />High Plains states (or possibly aggregations of <br />the northern and southern states of the High <br />Plains) under alternative development strategies. <br /> <br />INPUT FROM: <br /> <br />B-8: <br />B-7: <br />B-3: <br /> <br />A-2: <br />A-3: <br />B-1 : <br />B-6: <br />B-5: <br />B-9: <br />B-10: <br />B-ll : <br /> <br />Energy Prices and Technology Assessment <br />Conduct Crop Prices Assessment <br />Agricultural Water Management and Technology <br />Assessment <br />Energy Production Impacts <br />State Water Resources Evaluation and Impact Research <br />Interbasin Transfer Assessment <br />Institutional Assessment <br />Unconventional Water Supply Assessment <br />Conduct Dryland Farming Assessment <br />Nonagricultural Development Assessment <br />Evaluation of Alternative Development <br />Strategies (initial definition) <br />Coordination by and with General Contractor <br /> <br />A-4: <br /> <br />WORK PLAN: Execution of the work under this element will be in accordance <br />with a detailed Plan of Study to be developed by the state and the <br />General Contractor.' The work plan will first include a comparative <br />review of the validity and usefulness of existing farm budgets and <br />various agricultural simulation models that have been developed for <br />different parts of the High Plains region of the state. <br /> <br />Following a comparative evaluation of these budgets and model- <br />ling techniques, each state or group of states will then define model <br />assumptions and refine or develop consistent models for the High Plains <br />portions of the states. In this phase of. A-l, the states working with <br />the General Contractor will have to address the problem of the geo- <br />graphical level of analysis using the county as a building block and <br />the homogeneity assumptions that will be required at some level in <br />each model. The models will be applied to dry land, irrigated and <br />irrigable acreages, and the competition for these resources among <br />major types of crop and 1 i vestock producti on, Therefore, proposed <br />models must be tested against changes over an appropriate historical <br />period and their sensitivity evaluated to potential changes in <br />agricultural policies, consumer demand, etc. Anticipated use of <br />these models to project a time profile of agricultural production over <br />a 40-year period will require careful attention to trends in irrigation <br />