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<br />" <br /> <br />developing more parameters in the modeL but estimating additional parameters may be limited <br />by the length of the historic data record and the degrees of freedom of the model. Therefor the <br />model must preserve these relationships and not have so many parameters that the historic data <br />cannot be used to estimate them. <br /> <br />Developing climatic data to estimate demands is not expected to be performed in this subtask. <br />Rather the program developed previously, which estimates demands as a function of a wet, dry <br />or average streamflow, is expected to be used to estimate demands that correspond to the <br />stochastic streamflows, <br /> <br />12.2.8tochastic Model Verification In this subtask. the stochastic models will be verified to insure <br />the characteristics and interrelationships of the data have been preserved. Data will be generated <br />at each gage location and the characteristics of the generated data will be evaluated and <br />compared to historical data. Discrepancies will be noted, adjustments to the models will be <br />made, and results verified. <br /> <br />This subtask may be an extensive, iterative process since many models will not preserve key <br />historical statistical characteristics such as drought length or severity. The process becomes <br />iterative because properties such as i.1 drought chuructcristics can only be evaluated after the <br /> <br />model is executed and the results are evaluated. <br /> <br />12.3.Generation of Data Sets In this subtask. the stochastic models developed and verified <br />previously will be used to generate data sets for use by the CRDSS Water Resource Planning <br />Model. The number and type of data sets developed will be consistent with the results of Task <br />10. Activities to be performed in this subtask might include: <br /> <br />. evaluation and comparison of drought and wet hydrologic characteristics for the stochastic, <br />historic (1975-1991) and extended data sets. <br />· developing separate stochastic sequence for each major basin that allow the most severe <br />droughts and wet periods to be used in each basin with less severe conditions to be assumed <br />in adjacent basins. <br />· developing a stochastically generated trace for each basin on the order of 10,000 years <br />length, i.e. 100 traces 100 years in length for each basin. <br />. other <br /> <br />12.4.Interface Design In this subtask, the Graphical User Interface (GUI) designed previously will <br />be revised to accommodate stochastic data development. <br /> <br />12.5.Draft Stochastic Model Documentation In this subtask, the stochastic model development <br />will be documented in a memorandum containing approximately 15 pages of text. The_ <br />memorandum will describe the model selection, the algoritluns used, and the checks performed <br />to validate the models. <br /> <br />12.6.Final Stochastic Model Documentation Incorporate State comments into a linal Stochastic <br />Model Documentation memorandum. Provide Word tiles to the State or another contractor for <br />inclusion in the on-line documentation. <br /> <br />12.7.Stochastic Baseline Simulation In this subtask. stochastic data will be used and other <br />appropriate data developed to verify its operation within the baseline data sets for each of the 5 <br />CRDSS Water Resource Planning Models. Limited review, as reflected in the associated cost of <br />service estimate, is anticipated to verify the stochastic data is operating properly within <br /> <br />C:I wlcrdsslscopelboy II Iblerdss3 .doe <br /> <br />5/30/97 - Page 20 <br /> <br />0755 <br />