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<br />.' <br /> <br />I, For the period of record selected, complete reservoir end-of-month content data and estimated <br />historic diversion data, <br />2, Natural flows for each of the 5 CROSS Water Resource Planning Models, <br />3, Complete historic streamflow data: missing data tilled with estimates, <br />4, GUI Interface design, <br />5, Draft and final Historic Data Extension memorandum. <br />6, Updated StateMod Historic and Calculated data, Draft and final Extended Historic and <br />Calculated Simulation memorandum, <br /> <br />7, Updated StateMod Baseline data. <br />memorandum. <br /> <br />Draft and final Extended Baseline Simulation <br /> <br />8, Draft revised Water Resource Planning Model documentation. <br /> <br />9. Final revised Water Resource Planning Model documentation. <br /> <br />Task 12 - Stochastic Data Development <br /> <br />Responsibility: Boyle <br /> <br />Objective: To develop stochastic models for the generation of streamflow data, and to use these <br />models to generate such data for use in the CRDSS Water Resource Planning Models. <br /> <br />Approach: <br /> <br />12.1 ,Develop Stochastic Model The development of a stochastic model cannot be totally <br />automated and must be analyzed to determine a model structure that preserves the most <br />important statistical characteristics and system mass balance. In this subtask, the natural flow <br />data developed previously will be utilized to develop stochastic models. The data will be <br />analyzed for statistical characteristics. normalized, and a multivariate, multiple stage <br />disaggregation model developed. This approach will preserve the characteristics of the <br />composite total outflow of all the basins and the cross-correlation among the basins, The <br />development of a stochastic model will require determining the model structure, estimating <br />parameters for the model and then verifying the preservation of historic statistics in the <br />generation of data. <br /> <br />The basic structure of the model appropriate for the CROSS Water Resource Planning _ <br />applications is expected to be a disaggregation model that preserves the total annual flows in <br />the basin. This data will be disaggregated both spatially and seasonally to develop monthly <br />flows for approximately 180 gaged locations in the Colorado River Basin of Colorado. The <br />form of the model will insure that some statistical properties are preserved while other <br />properties are not implicitly preserved. Therefore, developing a stochastic model must be <br />evaluated for each site to assure that all the appropriate statistical properties are preserved. For <br />example, spatially desegregating the annual flows will assure that the total annual flows at gaged <br />and ungaged locations sum to the downstream gage. But if each gage is then seasonally <br />disaggregated individually. then the sum of anyone month's gaged flows may result in an <br />ungaged flow which is unreasonable at a downstream gage. This anomaly may be resolved by <br /> <br />C:I wlerdss Iseopelboy II Iblerdss3 ,doc <br /> <br />5/30/97 - Page 19 <br /> <br />0756 <br />