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<br />be contacted which have stochastic model systems such as the U.S. Bureau of <br />Reclamation (SAMS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, etc. Also, universities that are <br />doing research in stochastic models will be contacted such as Cornell (SPIGOT) and <br />Colorado State University, Most likely, an existing, aggregated-type model will be <br />used that will develop stochastic sequences that consider the total volume of <br />available water. Then disaggregation techniques will be employed to develop flows <br />for each gaging site or input point for CRDSS. However, other approaches <br />investigated may emerge as better meeting the needs for the system. Potential <br />constraints associated with developing a stochastic model, such as the number of <br />years of historic record required to get reasonable statistical parameters will be <br />identified and described. <br /> <br />10.3.2. Summarize methods used to characterize and present planning model results with <br />stochastic data input. <br /> <br />10,3.3. Identify model hardware requirements. <br /> <br />10.3.4. Recommend a model or technique for potential use by CRDSS. Special <br />consideration \vi!l be given to practical. proven method of generating strealnf10ws fur <br />a multi-basin system such as CRDSS. In addition. the trade off associated with <br />generating climatological data or estimating demands via a wet, dry or average <br />runoff year will be considered. The advantages and disadvantages of each model or <br />technique will be discussed and contrasted on a basin by basin basis and the <br />Colorado River as a whole. <br /> <br />10.3.5. Prepare a draft Development of Stochastic Data memorandum describing the results <br />of this subtask. The memorandum is expected to contain approximately 5 - 10 pages <br />of text. summarize the activities of this Task and describe: <br />· if stochastic data can be developed. <br />· the method used to develop stochastic data and <br />· the accuracy to be expected from stochastic data development. <br /> <br />10.3.6. the accuracy to be expected from extending historic data.. <br /> <br />10.3.7. Incorporate State comments into a final memorandum, <br /> <br />10.4. Review Other Methods Other data extension techniques besides those described in subtask <br />10.2 and 10.3 will be reviewed, This would include the following: <br /> <br />10.4,1. Identify and describe other data extension approaches which may meet the needs of <br />CRDSS. The focus will be on practical rather than a theoretical or research efforts. <br />Other approaches might include coupling regression relationships with stochastic <br />components to account for regression residuals, tree ring studies, the indexed <br />sequential method, existing long term records developed by the USBR for their <br />Colorado River Stream System Model. etc, <br /> <br />10.4.2. Prepare a draft Other Data Extension Methods memorandum describing the results of <br />this subtask. The memorandum will recommend the feasibility of using other data <br /> <br />C:lwlcrdsslscopelboy I I Iblcrdss3 .doc <br /> <br />0760 <br /> <br />5/30/97 - Page 15 <br />