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<br />-~\ <br />___._' 0 a J 7 4 7 <br /> <br />-2- <br /> <br />,'" <br />,-- ) <br />--7 <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />The mathematical part of our research proposal is relatively <br />simple. It involves the application of probability analysis to <br />existing stream flow data for the Colorado River. By such analysis <br />it will be possible to define the l!l!Wi likel.v flaw sequence from 1960 <br />onwards for a five or ten year period. It will also be possible to <br />define the probability of ocourence of any particular aSSUllled sequence. <br />We propose to identify and define some 100 - 200 of the most like~ <br />combinations of stream flaw years. <br /> <br />Having determined the probability of f'uture stream flow <br />sequences, we propose .to aJJa1yse these in order to determine the <br />financial results of each operating pattern. We could then discover <br />the optimum pattern, defining optimum in various W!lJ's based on such <br />factors as the divergent interests of the Upper and Lower Basin states. <br /> <br />We wish to emphasize the 1mmediate importance of this part <br />of our proposal. When we are able to define the probab1l1ty of the <br />stream flow sequences of the Colorado we then will be able to define <br />the best current operating procedures for Lake Mead end Hoover which <br />will provide the optimum 1Jlitial storage at Lake Mead prior to the <br />closing of the gates at Glen Can;ron. Some provision for 1Jlitial <br />storage at Lake Mead should be made during the operating year 1959 <br />which is just ahead. We would hope to provide prellminar;r results of <br />our probability ana~sis within six months of the effective date ot <br />acceptance of this proposal. <br /> <br />II <br /> <br />. The meteorological studies which torm the second part' of <br />our proposal fall into two sections: 1) studies of precipitation and <br />other weather factors end their relation to streamflow in the Colorado <br />River; and 2) research into the cause of changes in stOl'lll tracks and <br />their relation to precipitation and other weather factors. <br /> <br />In section 1 it is proposed that a study be made of the many <br />probable causes of' the extreme~ varia1:iLe Colorado River streamflow. <br />Precipitation, temperature and soil permeability are but a taw of the <br />tactors which may influence the spring runof'f' and subsequent streamflow <br />throughout the balance of the year. Climatic and meteorological data <br />. have been collected for approximately the last 70 to 80 years but for <br />the most part have lain dormant - no ~es have been made with <br />respect to their relationship to streamflow in the Colorado River. <br />In the past few year, new information has been obtained about soil <br />permeability and the effect of forestation on snow pack - all of <br />which can compliment the meteorological investigations. <br /> <br />Thus it is proposed that, using the new information and the <br />long-time weather records, a s;rstematic ana~sis be made to determine <br />the physical causes of the variability of the Colorado River streamflow. <br /> <br />, <br />