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h ~~'I .' OJJ746 ,0 "\-~.) Public law 485, S'ect.ion 6, requires that certain financial date relative to the Colorado River Storage Project be reported to Congress on January 1 of each year co.mm8Bding in 1958. Basic to such a report is the relationship of anticipated power revenues to the financial requirements of the Act. In turn, the anticipation of power revenues involves assumptions and premises as to future hydrologic conditions and as to water passing the storage damS to downstream uses'. Accordingly, the Bureau of Reclamation and the various states of the Upper and Lower Basins are engaged currently in studies to determine the financial results of varioUS operations procedures. Such operations procedures are derived from assumptions concerniDg such itEllDS as stream flow, initial storage in IakeMead, downstream water requirements and existing power contract.s at Hoover. The original working b1Pothesis of the Bureau or Reclama- tion (1957) assllJlled a stream now of 13.1 million acre feet per year for a humber of years sufficient to fill Glen Canyon. . Ot.hers, in- cluding the state of California, have made use of the historical now of record, assuming 1922 to represent 1962, 1923 to represent 1963, etc. No doubt other aSSllJllptions have been utilized involving, per- haps, an arbitrary series of years of high flow or low now. It should be recognized that studies based upon such arbitrary aSSlllJlptions of stream now are of limited usefUlness, since they have no established predictive value. Obviously what is needed is an approach to this problem which can replace arbitrary assllJllptions about stri!!lDInOW with scientific prediction. Fortunately there are two scientific approaches to the prediction of the flow of the Colorado River from 1960 onwards which. are available. One is mathematical, the other meteorological.. The Bureau of Economic Research and the High Altitude Observatory have the honor to subnit a proposal which utilized and combines these two approaches. We are hopeful that the results of our research will make it possible to prediot the now of the Colorado River aml between 1<}60 and 1965 or 1970 with a degree of accuracy which can be soienti- fically defined and whioh will be superior to any predictions hitherto employed. We are, of course, unable to est:lJDate the possibility of sucoess of all aspects of our research proposal at this time. We believe, however, that the prognosis is favorable; and that significant and useful results can be expect.ed.