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Ofl~3K') U .,t .J () energy companies will relay exclusively upon these when developing necessary water supplies. Their decision will depend upon the seniority and the cost of developing such conditional rights into sufficiently reliable water supplies. The alternative, of course, is to acquire senior agri- cultural rights. However, water right transactions are not matters of public record, and it is therefore difficult to document recent trends in ownership. A relatively minor amount of agricultural water has actually been transferred to new energy uses, but there are no records to indicate how much agriucltural water, if any, has been purchased or optioned, and simply leased back to the original irrigator, In summary, it is clear that both municipal growth and energy develop- ment will be the economic driving forces behind future changes in the allocation and use of water in Colorado. Although the mechanisms for this change are well known (i.e., the free market operation of the water rights system), the magnitude, location, and timing of the changes are unclear. The above paragraphs briefly describe the uses of water to which market forces alone will lead, and the uncertainties associated with those uses. A second factor which will influence the demand for water is the public policy concern for water uses. which cannot compete in the marketplace, or which are ignored by the market entirely. For example, there is significant public concern about the continued vitality of irri- gated agriculture in Colorado. Although irrigated agriculture provides numerous social, economic and environmental benefits to the state, agriculture generally cannot compete with energy companies or munici- palities in the market for water. Therefore, the state has had a long- standing policy of support for federal reclamation projects, which provide 7 r-- ----,-, -.