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<br />11.8.Draft Water Resource Planning Model Documentation In this subtask, the existing <br />StateMod documentation will be revised to reflect the extended data set development, revised <br />calibration (if any) and verification efforts. Appropriate revisions to the executive summary, <br />body and appendices of each of the 5 basin documents will be prepared. <br /> <br />11.9.Final Water Resource Planning Model Documentation Incorporate State comments into a <br />final Water Resource Planning Model documentation for each ofthe 5 basins. Provide Word <br />files to the State or another contractor for inclusion in the on-line documentation. <br /> <br />Deliverables: <br /> <br />1. For the period of record selected, complete reservoir end-of-month content data and estimated <br />historic diversion data. <br /> <br />2. Natural flows for each of the 5 CRDSS Water Resource Planning Models. <br />3. Complete historic streamflow data; missing data filled with estimates. <br />4. GUI Interface design. <br />5. Draft and tinal Historic Data Extension memorandum. <br />6. Updated StateMod Historic and Calculated data. Draft and final Extended Historic and <br />Calculated Simulation memorandum. <br /> <br />7. Updated StateMod Baseline data. <br />memorandum. <br /> <br />8. Draft revised Water Resource Planning Model documentation. <br /> <br />Draft and final Extended Baseline Simulation <br /> <br />9. Final revised Water Resource Planning Model documentation. <br /> <br />Task 12 - Stochastic Data Development <br /> <br />Responsibility: Boyle <br /> <br />Objective: To develop stochastic models for the generation of streamflow data, and to use these <br />models to generate such data for use in the CRDSS Water Resource Planning Models. <br /> <br />Approach: <br /> <br />l2.I.Develop Stochastic Model The development of a stochastic model cannot be totally <br />automated and must be analyzed to determine a model structure that preserves the most <br />important statistical characteristics. In this subtask, the natural flow data developed previously <br />will be utilized to develop stochastic models. The data will be analyzed for statistical <br />characteristics, normalized, and a multivariate, multiple stage disaggregation model will then be <br />developed. This approach will preserve the characteristics of the composite total outflow of all <br />the basins and the cross-correlation among the basins. The development of a stochastic model <br />will require determining the model structure, estimating parameters for the model and then <br />verifying the preservation of historic statistics in the generation of data. <br /> <br />The basic structure of the model appropriate for the CRDSS Water Resource Planning <br />applications is expected to be a disaggregation model that preserves the total annual flows in <br /> <br />c: \w\crdss\scope\boy IIIb\crdss3 .doc <br /> <br />0339 <br /> <br />5/30/97 - Page 18 <br />